Note ban puts BJP on the back foot

Centre did not use opportunities to mitigate people's 'distress'

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s expectations from the first two phases of elections in Uttar Pradesh should be modest, if the results of the Assembly polls of 2007 and 2012 are a measure.

Of the 73 seats that polled in the first round on Saturday, the BJP picked up only 12 seats in the 2012 elections and seven in 2007. In the second phase on Wednesday, where 67 seats are up for grabs, the BJP’s showing was as unimpressive: Seven in 2007 and 11 in 2012.

Therefore, to position the BJP as the centrepiece of the polls in western Uttar Pradesh and Rohilkhand — the swathe of land that extends eastward of Gajraula (102 km from Delhi) to Lakhimpur-Kheri, traversing Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Badaun, Bareilly and Shahjahanpur — amounts to solipsism. The Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have a far greater stake because in the recent elections, coinciding with the BJP’s falling graph, most of the seats here were held by the SP or the BSP, with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal rising now and then in the Jat belt.

The BJP’s confidence largely arose from its near-total sweep in the west and Rohilkhand in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Barring Firozabad and Badaun that were won, respectively, by Akshaye Yadav and Dharmendra Yadav, SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav’s nephews, every other parliamentary seat fell in the BJP’s kitty.

What is uniformly noticeable among BJP voters and supporters was their defensiveness each time the note bandi issue cropped up. The BJP’s local offices, which in 2014 brimmed with people prematurely celebrating Narendra Modi’s victory before counting, were muted.

A young party official of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) provenance in Rampur, who had his nose to the grindstone when the Lok Sabha polls were underway, admitted he “lost interest” this time. “I have nothing to say to our voters when they pose uncomfortable questions on demonetisation. I am packing my bags and taking a vacation in my village.” The official’s main worry was demonetisation had begun to “chip away” at Prime Minister Modi’s image. “Modiji has invested much personal and political capital in it but people ask me, does he not understand our hardships? Why did he make us suffer?”

In Moradabad, a senior RSS functionary stressed the Centre did not seize the opportunities to mediate and mitigate people’s “distress”.

“On December 31 (2016), we eagerly awaited the PM’s televised speech, believing he would announce or hint at certain remedies. Nothing came. Then the Budget arrived. Farmers expected a loan waiver, small traders looked forward to some relief. There was nothing. Initially, most people willingly stood for hours in queues to withdraw cash because they believed that after 50 days, black money would come out, some big men would be punished and perhaps jailed. Again, nothing happened. Now the talk is that small people have been punished, while the rich and the powerful have got away. The RSS is not going out of its way to counter the view. Let the BJP explain,” he said.

The RSS functionary said he tried to tell the BJP’s central leaders to stop the income tax department from sending “indiscriminate” notices, seeking explanations for the bank deposits made after November 8 within a stipulated time. “I said this is outright harassment. If the PM wanted to do it, he should have waited till the elections were over.”

Some BJP votaries held the bureaucracy and not the political executive culpable for the fallout of the note ban. Rasik Deep Singh, in the construction business in Saharanpur, said, “The masses are not educated enough to appreciate the long-term benefits of Modiji’s move. Each time I listen to him, I get back my moral strength.”

Compounding the BJP’s problems were two other factors: Delhi’s “interference” at the cost of sidelining Uttar Pradesh leaders and complaints against Lok Sabha members.

In Rampur, for instance, the recall value of incumbent MP Naipal Singh was abysmally low. People remembered Rajendra Sharma, who won on a BJP ticket in 1991 and thought he was their representative.

In Moradabad, the BJP and the RSS sounded furious with the MP, Sarvesh Kumar Singh, for “lobbying” and getting a ticket for his son, Sushant Singh, for the Barhapur Assembly seat. “Genuine claims were overlooked to accommodate the MP’s son. The state BJP is working to get him defeated,” a local functionary said. In Bijnor, the opinion about members of Parliament (MP) Kunwar Bhartendra Singh was he “preferred to live in his bungalow in Mussoorie” and surface during an election, “holding a ‘peepal’ sapling in one hand and patting a calf with the other to win Hindu votes”.

The only MP who was commended was Kanwar Singh Tanwar of Amroha. He reportedly spends his weekends in the town, supervising health services and organising mass marriages for the poor.

Vote-pullers

BJP’s move

* Hopes for polarisation of Hindu votes by raking up “bad” law-and-order situation

* Campaign big on issues like forming an “anti-Romeo” squad to check “love jihad” and protect college-going girls

* “Anti-palayan (migration)” squad to stem alleged flight of traders in west Uttar Pradesh to escape “extortions”, “abductions” and “Islamic terror”

* “Anti-land-grab” squad

* Closure of abattoirs high on agenda

Will the theme work?

* Unlikely, as caste divisions at play; Jats angry with BJP for “betraying” promises to sugarcane farmers

* Traders upset with demonetisation

* BJP’s tactic to regroup extremely backward castes not working

SP-Congress’s move

* Hopes to consolidate Muslim and floating votes

* Campaign big on Akhilesh Yadav’s “my work speaks for itself” slogan

* Appeal to women on policing through the emergency 100 phone number

* Project “casteless” image

* Play up youth quotient

Will the theme and strategies work?

* Congress exists as a “secular, inclusive” idea but brings little to table in terms of votes

* Fortunes rest on Akhilesh

* “Work” questioned for “poor” law and order management and patchy development

* ”Casteless” image undermined by accusations of bias in recruiting Yadavs over others in government service

BSP’s move

* Hopes to gain from Mayawati’s cachet as an efficient and strict administrator

* Divide Muslim votes and possibly wean some by using eminent clerics

* Mayawati’s alleged corruption not an issue although BJP harps at it

* Grassroot management through micro-level coordinators

Will the theme and strategies work?

* Long haul for Mayawati to fight Akhilesh on governance and development

* Muslim masses no longer listen to clergy

* No significant add-ons to Dalit base

* Has to fight perception that she might team up with BJP after polls

NOTE: Rohilkhand region votes on Wednesday