Now, Kashmir politicians 'fear' high voter turnout

Kashmir's leaders may have braved bullets to contest elections in the past. But now they seem to be nervous at the prospect of facing a groundswell of voter participation in the coming election, due at the end of the year.

"We are keeping our fingers crossed. It is difficult even for us to read the minds of Srinagar voters, who seem keen to cast their vote this time after a gap of 12 years," a senior National Conference (NC) leader admitted.

Omar Abdullah, leader, National Conference (NC), admitted that the announcement by the Muzzaffarabad-based United Jihad Council (UJC, a conglomerate of the armed insurgent groups in Kashmir) that guns would not be used to enforce the boycott of elections this time was likely to "add to the mood of participation by the voters".

However, an optimistic Abdullah, whose party men have been a target of pro-Pakistan militants during 18 years, said, "It means NC workers, who had been dormant for the fear of being killed, would be in the field to garner larger support for us and Kashmir may be able to record even higher percentage of polling than the national average."

Some constituencies in Srinagar had registered a mere two per cent polling in 2002 and 1996 elections amid violence and the widespread allegations that the security forces had forced people to vote.

According to Tahir Mohiudin, editor of the mass circulated Urdu weekly "Chattan", requests from aspiring candidates for coverage have poured in as his publication ran a series on pre-poll scenario series in January. "Everyone wanted his name to be thrown up," he said. This, he said, was a major change from the earlier years when the contestants would go underground the minute their names were announced by their parties for the fear of being killed by the militants.

However, the possibility of a higher voter turnout is making NC jittery as its leaders fear new voters could play spoilsport in the party's bid to retain its traditional stronghold of the Srinagar city. Apparently not taking chances, the NC "" which had ruled the roost from 1975 to 1999, till the advent of gun in Kashmir "" has announced charismatic Farooq Abdullah as a 'shadow chief minister' as opposed to his son Omar.

"This is because we face a double challenge "" from the PDP (ruling coalition partner) and the higher voter turnout," a senior leader of the party confessed to the Business Standard.

Even the Peoples' Democratic party (PDP), which had emerged during insurgency, is nervous about how "urban voters would behave this election."

A senior party leader said that while voter turnout is expected to be higher this year in cities, "there is no sure way of wooing them and for this reason we are concentrating in the rural areas". Analysts feel that in the run-up to the Assembly election, the state, perhaps for the first time, was acquiring the hues of the political culture of the rest of the country.

The leaders are carefully working on the pre- and post-election coalitions, seat adjustments and caste combinations "" factors which had never come into play in the elections in the state. Almost every day the National conference and PDP leaders in the state flaunt their 'rising support' as they showcase leaders who have joined them after deserting the rival camp in public.

Most importantly, the campaign, that is already going on, is centered around issues like development, corruption, regional aspirations and not on issues like accession (of Kashmir to Indian domain, etc).

"The road to PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) would become the main lifeline of Kashmir's economy," former chief minister Mufti Sayeed of the PDP says while his daughter Mehbooba seeks credit for the ruling coalition for this. Abdullah would expose "Muftis' doublespeak" on their sympathy for Kashmiris.

However, Omar, whose party had nothing but the autonomy plank to offer to the voters in the 2006 election said, "For us, corruption is the single issue in the election." NC leaders are attacking the Azad government for 'not maintaining transparency' in recruitment of 30,000 employees.

According to analysts, the Congress, for the first time, would be contesting to win and form a government independently. "The mantra this time is to win the elections at all costs and not to play second fiddle to regional parties for the sake of national interest,'' a Congress Member of Parliament said.

Congress is the sole example, perhaps in the country, when a ruling party had abdicated its rule to make way for a new dispensation "" Sheikh Abdullah in this case "" who virtually walked to power from prison in 1975 after a major political reconciliation. Ever since, the Congress has remained confused about its relevance in the frontier state.