 "October CPI inflation dips to 5.52%, touches historic low")
The Consumer-Price Index (CPI) based inflation rose to 5.52% in October compared to the same period last year, its lowest rate since the government started releasing the data in February 2012.
For September, CPI inflation was 6.46%, making October's numbers the third consecutive month that retail inflation has eased. According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) on Wednesday, the Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI), which has a 42.71% weightage in CPI, eased to 5.59% from 7.67% in September and 12.93% in October last year.
A poll of analysts by Bloomberg estimated the October CPI to rise 5.69%. The latest data will increase the clamour from Finance inistry officials and the markets for Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to finally cut interest rates, which he has kept unchanged since January 2014. The call for rate cuts will only increase, especially, with the September Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation easing to 2.38%, the lowest in five years. However, economists advice exercising caution.
"The CPI numbers are encouraging, but we should take it with a pinch of salt. The kharif crop output has been forecast by the government to be much lower than last year, and food prices may rise again. We need to wait and watch. This is why the Reserve Bank is still cautious," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with Care ratings. As per very preliminary estimates, India's food grain production in 2014-15 kharif crop season is expected to be around 120 million tonNes, nearly 9.5 million tonnes less than last year, but officials have said that there could be a further downward revision in the estimates as arrivals gather steam from middle of November onwards.
These estimates were released in September. Despite the inflation rate falling to a level much below theReserve Bank of India's target of 8% for January 2015, and even 6% for January 2016 a lowering of the key policy rate is unlikely in the near future.
"I think Rajan will wait and watch the numbers till January at thevery least before deciding on a rate cut," said Deloitte India senior director Anis Chakravarty. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September,which was also released on today, showed an increase of 2.5% for the month of September, compared to a decrease of 0.4% in August.
Most of the food-sub groups showed a fall in prices in October. The biggest drop came from vegetable prices, where prices actually fell 1.45%, compared to a rise of 8.59% in September.
Fruit prices eased to 17.49% from 22.40% last month. However, pulses and products rose 7.51% from 7.18% in September, while condiments and spices rose to 8.85% from 8.58%. EggS, fish and meat products and oils and fats did not show anymonth-over-month change in inflation.
For September, CPI inflation was 6.46%, making October's numbers the third consecutive month that retail inflation has eased. According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) on Wednesday, the Consumer Food Price Inflation (CFPI), which has a 42.71% weightage in CPI, eased to 5.59% from 7.67% in September and 12.93% in October last year.
A poll of analysts by Bloomberg estimated the October CPI to rise 5.69%. The latest data will increase the clamour from Finance inistry officials and the markets for Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to finally cut interest rates, which he has kept unchanged since January 2014. The call for rate cuts will only increase, especially, with the September Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation easing to 2.38%, the lowest in five years. However, economists advice exercising caution.
"The CPI numbers are encouraging, but we should take it with a pinch of salt. The kharif crop output has been forecast by the government to be much lower than last year, and food prices may rise again. We need to wait and watch. This is why the Reserve Bank is still cautious," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with Care ratings. As per very preliminary estimates, India's food grain production in 2014-15 kharif crop season is expected to be around 120 million tonNes, nearly 9.5 million tonnes less than last year, but officials have said that there could be a further downward revision in the estimates as arrivals gather steam from middle of November onwards.
These estimates were released in September. Despite the inflation rate falling to a level much below theReserve Bank of India's target of 8% for January 2015, and even 6% for January 2016 a lowering of the key policy rate is unlikely in the near future.
"I think Rajan will wait and watch the numbers till January at thevery least before deciding on a rate cut," said Deloitte India senior director Anis Chakravarty. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September,which was also released on today, showed an increase of 2.5% for the month of September, compared to a decrease of 0.4% in August.
Most of the food-sub groups showed a fall in prices in October. The biggest drop came from vegetable prices, where prices actually fell 1.45%, compared to a rise of 8.59% in September.
Fruit prices eased to 17.49% from 22.40% last month. However, pulses and products rose 7.51% from 7.18% in September, while condiments and spices rose to 8.85% from 8.58%. EggS, fish and meat products and oils and fats did not show anymonth-over-month change in inflation.