In 2014-15, the Annual Plan was estimated at Rs 40,810 crore including PSU allocation of Rs 2,000 crore as per original Budget Estimates (BE).
But the Plan size has been scaled down to Rs 35,000 crore in the revised estimates (RE) for the year since the state government expects Rs 3,723.31 crore shortfall in central assistance and Rs 2,000 crore less mobilisation from the state's own revenue collection target.
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"The Annual Plan for 2015-16 has been estimated at Rs 40,000 crore assuming GSDP (gross state domestic product) of six per cent. The state's own tax revenue is expected to grow by 5.42 per cent and non-tax revenue at the rate of eight per cent over 2014-15," said a government official.
In 2015-16, the state's own tax revenue is to take a hit of Rs 1,500 crore due to the commissioning of the 15 million tonne per annum oil refinery of Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL). The state government had allowed the oil major deferred payment of value added tax (VAT) for a period of 11 years from the date of commissioning of the refinery.
The estimated revenue sacrifice on this account on the basis of existing level of consumption in the state is around Rs 67,000 crore over a period of 11 years which is equivalent to Rs 23,500 crore in terms of present value. The refinery is scheduled to start commercial operations from March this year.
Though the state government has not resorted to open market borrowings since 2006-07, it has projected such borrowing of Rs 7,501.31 crore for the next fiscal.
The borrowing from the National Bank for Agriculture & Rural Development (Nabard) is projected at Rs 2,000 crore for financing projects under Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF). Resources for externally aided projects have been estimated at Rs 2,275 crore.
Central assistance under Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS) is likely to grow at about 10 per cent over the level communicated by the Planning Commission for 2014-15. Though the state government hopes to contain its fiscal deficit within three per cent of GSDP, concerns on additional expenditure for 2015-16 mount over implementation of recommendations of the 4th State Finance Commission (SFC) and the Centre's Seventh Pay Commission. Non-Plan revenue expenditure is projected to grow at the rate of 12.25 per cent over 2014-15 as the 4th SFC has recommended transfer of additional Rs 700 crore to local bodies. And, should the recommendations of the Seventh Pay Commission be implemented, the state has to take an incremental financial burden of Rs 500 crore for 2015-16. Besides, the shadow of economic recession is likely to continue in next fiscal, resulting in tepid revenue growth. But the state government is banking on new revenue opportunities offered by the proposed auction of coal by the government of India.
"The proposed auction by the Centre for allocation of coal mines may fetch long-term revenue earnings starting from 2015-16. The state hopes to garner additional resource of Rs 300 crore from such auction in the next fiscal," said an official.