The Planning Commission is expected to peg the total outlay for the 12th five-year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) at Rs 35,68,626 crore for Centre and states at 2006-07 prices.
At the outset, the funds would be 125 per cent more than the actual 11th Plan allocation, but marginally lower than the targeted outlay at the outset for the 11th Plan. The 11th Plan (2006-07 to 2011-12) aimed to allocate Rs 36,44,718 crore to various sectors but only Rs 15,89,343 crore was spent. This shows the resource strain that the Centre and states faced.
Officials said the difficult financial position and the global slowdown could have prevented the government from going for a significant rise in outlay as compared to the 11th Plan estimate. In its approach paper, the Planning Commission had warned of a strain on financial resources because of high subsidies.
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The officials said of the outlay for the 12th Plan, the Centre’s share is estimated at Rs 27,10,840 crore or 76 per cent more than the actual 11th Plan allocation. States’ share is expected to be Rs 8,57,786 crore or 123 per cent more than the spent in the previous Plan. The allocations for earlier plans are not comparable due to differences in base prices.
With inclusive growth a primary agendum of the 12th Plan, a big chunk of the allocation is expected to go for health, education and drinking water sectors.
It is also expected that the Commission would lower its average annual gross domestic product growth forecast from the 9-9.5 per cent a year pegged in the approach paper. A full meeting of the Commission is scheduled later this month, chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and to be attended by almost all his Cabinet colleagues. Then, the National Development Council (where the state chief ministers are also members) will meet to give final touches to the document.