The pre-Budget move of raising freight rates by 20-25 per cent would raise the gross traffic receipts of the railways 27.6 per cent to Rs 1,32,000 crore in 2012-13 over the revised estimates of the current finan-cial year.
The much-touted passenger fare hikes that drew angry responses from even Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi’s own party, the Trinamool Congress, would result in just over Rs 7,000 crore, part of which would also come from rounding off the fares and the expected increase in traffic.
On the other hand, ordinary working expenses would be up 11.6 per cent to Rs 84,000 crore in 2012-13 to meet additional liabilities, along with an appropriation of Rs 18,500 crore to the pension fund.
The railways are targeting 1,025 million tonnes of revenue-earning originating traffic during 2012-13, about 55 million tonnes more than the revised estimate target. This and the increase in freight rates would lead to Rs 89,339 crore of earning from freight, about 30.2 per cent more than the current year’s revised target.
While passenger fare hikes in the range of 12.9 per cent to 20.5 per cent for AC classes drew angry responses from Trivedi’s own party, the increases would help the ministry get Rs 7,273 crore more next financial year over the revised estimates of 2011-12. Part of this would also come from rounding off the fares as well as expected increase in passenger traffic.
Trivedi expected a 5.4 per cent rise in the number of passengers, expected from the increase in the number of trains and higher occupancy. Passenger earnings have been kept at Rs 36,073 crore for the coming year.
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Sundry non-transport earnings are expected to grow by 9-10 per cent in 2012-13 to nearly Rs 7,000 crore.
Together with increased earnings, the railways are expected to bring down the operating ratio, the expenses incurred to earn every Rs 100 revenue, to 84.9 from 95 this year. The financial condition this year was so dire that the railways had to get a loan of Rs 3,000 crore from the finance ministry to meet the urgent need on safety-related investment in 2011-12. The loan is repayable in two equal instalments and carries an interest of 8.55 per cent. The stress on earnings came partly due to continued ban on export of iron ore by the Karnataka and Orissa governments, leading to scaling down of the loading target from 993 million tonnes to 970 million tonnes in the revised estimates.
However, the earnings target for goods has been retained in view of the freight rationalisation implemented from March 6. However, lower passenger traffic would lead to lower earnings on this count by Rs 1,656 crore, to Rs 28,800 crore in the revised estimates compared to the Budget estimates.
Gross traffic receipts are estimated to be Rs 2,322 crore short of the Budget estimate for 2012. The revised estimate would be Rs 1,03,000 crore.