Photo finish, say exit polls

NDA government given a miniscule lead.

Exit polls after the last phase of voting today for 182 seats that saw a turnout of between 50 per cent and 55 per cent gave the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a minuscule lead in the race to form a government at the Centre.

In an election that promised to be a photo finish between the Congress alliance and the NDA, with others notching up substantial numbers, the heat and some violence kept away voters. The average turnout was on the lower side.

Kerala recorded the highest 60 per cent turnout, Tamil Nadu 50 per cent, West Bengal 45 per cent, Delhi 40 per cent, and Uttar Pradesh 35 per cent.

Election Commission observers said about 35 people died in poll-related violence, bringing the curtain down on an election that saw polling in just one constituency being countermanded for illegalities""Chhapra where the repoll will be held on May 31.

As politicians held their breath and waited for the counting that will begin and end on Thursday, exit polls had no words of cheer either for the NDA or the Congress and its allies.

For the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, the most optimistic count was Sahara's, which gave it between 263 seats and 278 seats.

While the Aaj Tak poll kept the NDA dangling at 248 seats, 24 short of majority, Star TV forecast seats for the NDA in the range of 263-275. Zee gave the alliance 249 seats and NDTV 230-250.

Of all the channels, NDTV was kindest to the Congress and its allies with a forecast of 190-205 seats. It gave others 100-120 seats. Aaj Tak forecast as many as 190 seats to the Congress alliance and gave 105 to others.

Star TV gave the Congress between 174 seats and 186 seats and between 86 seats and 98 to others, suggesting that if all the others support the Congress it could come close to forming the government.

Sahara gave between 171 seats and 181 seats to the Congress and between 92 seats and 102 to others. Zee forecast 176 seats for the Congress and 117 seats for others.

What the channels had in common was a big improvement in the Congress tally from the 137 seats it held in 1999. This shot to pieces the argument that Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins had prevented the Congress base from growing.

As parties began strategising and preparing for a hung Lok Sabha, the combative tone, so evident before the polling and during the campaign, was missing today.

Most political parties are waiting to see the results of the election to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly, for which counting will begin and end tomorrow. The Andhra Pradesh verdict will prepare the groups psychologically for the gruelling government-formation exercise that will begin on Thursday.

While all parties are maintaining a brave face and are not talking about being unable to form the government, privately they concede that if either group forms a minority government, fresh elections in one year cannot be ruled out.