Poll campaign ends in Bihar, Jharkhand

ASSEMBLY POLL

With campaigning having ended for the final phase of Assembly elections in Bihar and Jharkhand today, a sense of palpable tension gripped all political parties without exception.

On February 23, 93 seats are going to the polls in Bihar and 28 in Jharkhand. Of these, in the undivided Bihar Assembly in 2000, the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) held 44 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 13 and the Janata Dal (United) 17.

Bihar went through its last electoral exercise in 2004, less than six months ago when the Lok Sabha polls were held. Then the RJD, the Congress, the Left Front and Ramvilas Paswan-led Lok Janashakti Party (LJP), fought a seamless election and owing to minimum rebellion won 25 seats leaving just 11 for the National Democratic Alliance.

This time, the question people are asking themselves is whether Rabri Devi will be able to occupy 1, Anne Marg, official residence of the Bihar chief minister, again. The arithmetic of the Assembly election is clear though its outcome is not.

To form a government in the 243-member House, Lalu needs to win at least 90 seats on his own. This is because both the Congress and the LJP, who had fought the Lok Sabha polls together, are contesting against each other in several constituencies.

Paswan has said he will not do a deal with Lalu and would prefer the central rule. Neither Paswan nor the Congress can form a government in collaboration with any other formation but Lalu. If Lalu gets more than 90 seats, rebels and independents will also flock to him and reaching the 122-mark might not be difficult.

The question then is the leadership of the new government. The Congress might be induced to supporting the RJD government if the chief minister is someone of its choice.

On the other hand, Lalu might just decide to threaten the Congress with the withdrawal of the support of 25 RJD members in Parliament, creating a crisis over the continuance of the UPA government.

Politicians also visualise another scenario "� that Lalu might use the hung Assembly in Jharkhand as bait to the Congress, in return for the party's support for the choice of his chief minister in Bihar.

At a debate organised by the BBC, both Lalu and Paswan said the elections "will not have any impact on the health of the UPA."

"These elections are being held in Bihar. Why should it have any effect on the central government, for whose installation we have worked hard," Lalu told a BBC Hindi show last night.

Paswan agreed with his arch-rival and said the Congress did not need to take sides in the battle for Bihar.

"The Bihar polls will not have any impact on the UPA at the Centre. In this fight, between my party and the RJD, the Congress should remain neutral. All of us are separate political parties and have a right to take independent decisions, which do not affect the alliance," Paswan said.

Describing the Union chemicals minister as a "foolish politician," Lalu said: "I will prefer to go down the drain rather than align with the communal forces like he has done in the past and may do again."

In Jharkhand, what is at stake is Union Coal Minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief Shibu Soren's long cherished dream to rule the state. According to indications, a hung Assembly might be on the cards.

The coal belt of Dhanbad and Bokaro with 10 Assembly constituencies go to the polls on February 23.