Strong rollover in Nifty and stocks futures will not allow the markets to fall. However, the market is likely to be volatile today in view of ensuing expiry of September contracts.The market breadth continued to be negative with advance decline ratio worsening further to 3:5. The strong support for Nifty is seen at 4900 while resistance is seen at 5000.The FII's were net buyers in both cash and index futures to the tune of Rs 1,490 crore and Rs 630 crore respectively with OI increasing by Rs 240 crore.At the current level markets players are not eager to carry forward their positions, and hence despite all time high turnover of Rs 83,677 crore on NSE yesterday, the open interest has increased by Rs 2,000 crore.The daily relative strength index (RSI) at 95 show Nifty to be in the overbought zone where 4,500 would act as a strong trend-line and psychological level. On the downside, Nifty may find support at 4,900 and 4,880 levels. On the upside, Nifty may face resistance at 4,955 and 5,000 levels.The derivative analyst at HDFC Securities continues with bullish approach as the markets continue to remain in a long-term uptrend. Their views are supported by the healthy state of the derivative indicators like the Nifty OI PCR and the Nifty Implied volatility.The Nifty OI PCR has been trading in the range of 1.60-1.70. This is not only a bullish signal, but also suggests that the momentum in the market is strong. The Nifty IV that has been in the range of 20-32% too is not too high too suggests that the market is near an intermediate top.However with derivative expiry this week, markets could be volatile and could witness some selling pressure at higher levels. Any corrections are likely to find support at the previous highs between 4625-4650. On the upside, the Nifty could touch 5000 levels this week.
