Pre-poll political equations

Madhya Pradesh
Political parties in Madhya Pradesh have formally started gearing up for the coming Assembly election, but with no strong issue in hand.

The ruling BJP’s biggest task will be to minimise the anti-incumbency factor, while the Congress will have to satisfy itself with “natural” gains as it has not made any significant efforts to make a dent in the ruling party’s image.

While the Third Front appears to be ready to contest all the 230 seats, despite repeated failures to collect cadres, former chief minister and BJP rebel Uma Bharti seems to be the only one likely to report some success due to her crowd-pulling abilities.

To fill the vacuum in some areas, the BJP is looking to defections from the Congress, like that of ex-cabinet rank minister Prem Narayan Thakur who joined the party earlier this week. Thakur hails from the Amarwara Assembly seat (Chhindwara district).

Besides, the BJP will have to be cautious in selecting candidates, particularly in the Malwa and Chambal regions. “Both are decisive areas. The BJP has a good grip on the Malwa region, which has almost 150 seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) have maintained their position in the Chambal region since 1991 by gaining 6-7 per cent of the total 28 seats. If the BJP fails to retain its hold in these areas, the damage will be severe,” said Girija Shankar, a poll observer, said. Shashikant Trivedi

Delhi
The Congress has managed to circumvent the electoral code of conduct (that bars launching of any new schemes after the EC announces polls) by a whisker. Just last week the government here distributed provisional certificates to residents of many of the 1,400 unauthorised colonies, promising them that these would soon be regularised.

It was a function presided over by Congress President Sonia Gandhi, besides Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and possible chief minister-in-waiting Ajay Maken, and was unofficially the launch of the party’s election campaign.

About 4 million Delhiites will benefit from the move if it wins the apex court’s approval. The government is already laying sewers and drains in 700 of these colonies on a war footing. And these 4 million people are what the Congress is banking on to help it romp home for the third consecutive time. The total budget allocation for the regularisation drive is Rs 3,000 crore.

As many as 400,000 slum dwellers will move into flats which the Congress government has promised.

Supremely confident, Delhi party president J P Agarwal said: “We have worked hard and so we are cent per cent confident of our victory.” Agarwal is perhaps the only party president in the last one decade who has no axe to grind with the CM. Dikshit has had a running battle with dissident party leaders.

BJP chief ministerial candidate V K Malhotra, on the other hand, is still cobbling together support from party cadres. About 60 corporators of the BJP led by party organising secretary Jagdish Mamgain recently submitted a memorandum to party president L K Advani and other leaders, demanding that councillors be considered as candidates for contesting the Assembly elections. Malhotra oppose their demand.

The BSP factor does not bother either the BJP or the Congress. Both say Mayawati’s charm has waned after the initial months of her government in Uttar Pradesh. Sreelatha Menon

Chhattisgrah
The power struggle within the Congress party in the state poses a big advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The poll strategists of the ruling party are well aware of the equation that the defeat of former chief minister Ajit Jogi within and outside the party is a victory for the BJP. With the exercise to sideline Jogi on in the Congress, the BJP is keeping a closer watch on the developments in the Congress than in its own party.

Following simmering differences within the Congress over ticket distribution, which had also spilled out in the open, the party leadership in Delhi is avoiding to project any leader for the state elections.