“There is an 80 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon this year, as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has so far been neutral this year,” Jatin Singh, founder and CEO of Skymet weather services told Business Standard.
ENSO is one of the factors that has a direct bearing on India’s southwest monsoon. Singh said in the last 112 years, only in five years had a drought-like condition prevailed despite an ENSO neutral condition. “The last time drought-like conditions prevailed despite a neutral ENSO condition was in 1979. Before that, it was in 1974, 1968, 1920 and 1901. So, there is a reasonable chance that India might have a near-normal southwest monsoon this year,” Singh said.
The Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia, too, in its latest report, said ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels. “Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn as well,” the bureau said.
A clearer indication of Pacific Ocean conditions for 2013 will emerge over the next few months, the Bureau said. “The weather patterns are now in a transition mode and a much clearer picture will only emerge around April,” Singh said.
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Director General of India Meteorological Department , L F Rathore, however, said it was too early to make any prediction about the southwest monsoon in 2013, based on some global factors.
“ENSO is just one of many factors that have an impact on the Indian southwest monsoon. Hence, it will be too early to make any judgement based on that,” Rathore said. “The final picture will emerge only around April,” D Sivananda Pai, also of IMD said.
The met office is expected to release its first official forecast of the 2013 southwest monsoon only around April.
The rains, which will be the key factor in determining how the agrarian economy fares in 2013-14, have been slightly less than normal in 2012. Last year, though the rains began on a brisk note, they lost momentum during the middle part of the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts in June. They again gained pace during the latter half of the season. The break in rains from June-end to July impacted kharif foodgrain production. According to government estimates, India’s overall foodgrains output is expected to be around 250-255 million tonnes in 2012-13, down from last year’s record output of 259 million tonnes.