Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and author of more than one non-fiction best-seller on the region’s geopolitics, interviewed on the situation in his country by Karan Thapar on CNN-IBN’s ‘Devil’s Advocate’ programme. Edited excerpts:
After Salman Taseer’s death, more importantly after the response of lawyers, mullahs and civil society, you wrote that “this has unleashed the mad dogs of hell. We Pakistanis are at the edge of a precipice.” Do you mean it?
I think the crisis we are going through now is far more worse than anything before. What I think shocked Pakistan is the reaction of the millions of people in support of the killer of Salman Taseer, the people who are supporting the blasphemy law and refusing to amend it. What has happened is the multiple crises that have come together. There is an economic crisis and there is a global crisis. Inflation is running at 15-18 per cent, there is acute joblessness, there is no power, nothing. There is a political crisis — this is a coalition government run by the People’s Party but they are deep in trouble with their coalition partners and the opposition is ganging up. And there is a foreign policy crisis - a lack of relations with India, with Afghanistan the things are very tense, there’s terrorism and there are extremist groups who the army have not been able to curtail and there are floods.
Let’s first concentrate on the response to Taseer’s killing. In an article you wrote for The New York Times, you said “perhaps over 500 lawyers had lined up to defend the killer when Taseer’s widow could not find even one to prosecute”. You also said that in Lahore, a city of 13 million, not one mullah was prepared to read the funeral prayers. How do you explain that?
The seeds of this have been apparent for a long time. We have had the Pakistani Taliban on our soil, the Afghanistan Taliban, other extremist groups and they have penetrated aspects of middle class, of the educational establishments, the military and the police. The fact that he was killed by a policeman.
You are saying the Taliban has actually infiltrated large swathes of the country?
Not the Taliban, but their kind of thinking. And, people want simple explanations for the crisis, as to why they have been made jobless or not getting an education. People don’t want to analyse their own, self-made, crisis. Civil society is very frightened. There is all sorts of talk about more killings, of human rights workers, NGO workers, journalists and others.
Critical people have behaved very strangely. Shahbaz Sharif, chief minister of Punjab, his brother Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister, both refused to attend Taseer’s funeral even though he is the governor of their state.
A lot of the political parties did not respond to this in a way they should have. Not even the People’s Party. People are too scared.
You wrote that ‘even the all-powerful Pakistani army has refused to issue a single comment in support of the Salman Taseer family. What does that tell you about General Khayani and other top generals?
I think they are very nervous. The very fact that a special police bodyguard killed the Governor raises so many questions. What is the mood in the police services? In the army? Is the killer’s kind of thinking widespread?
The first critical question people ask is has Pakistan become an extremist and fundamentalist country?
There obviously is a very strong minority wing of extremists who have been involved in wars on both sides of our borders, who are pushing for the overthrow of the state, to bring about some kind of caliphate. And, a very small liberal part of society trying to express itself and to come back. But there is a vast, silent, majority, not expressing its view but certainly not extremist and realises that extremism is not the answer to their economic or educational or job problems.
If the silent majority stays silent, the extremists will end up having their way.
There we have the real problem, the lack of leadership. There is no leadership at the moment coming out of the political parties. There doesn’t seem to be much leadership even coming out of the army; not that people really want too much leadership out of the army, as we’ve had enough of military rule. But we certainly want leadership from the politicians.
Many people have been saying for a long time that the Pakistan army has become extensively Islamised.
Iit certainly worries people and certainly in the last few years of the army having to fight these extremists in the tribal areas, fighting the Pakistani Taliban, they’ve lost over 2,000 men and officers in this war. I’m sure a lot of people in the army are saying, why are we fighting this war and why are we killing our own people?
So, how the army responds and overcomes its internal debates and doubts is a critical test?
Certainly,, but what is called for is political leadership. We don’t see that now. The army does not want to intervene again, to be responsible for beating back these extremists. This is a political task, to be taken on by politicians. People have to be educated, explained to as to why the country is going through these crises.
The question is if the state becomes so weak that it can’t just not defend its citizens, but it can’t even protect the principles and ideals it stands for.
Tere is a real fear that if this crises is allowed to get worse, if the leadership is not there, there is a gradual meltdown of the economy, of the law and order and all the other aspects the state should be controlling, then we would be reaching a very serious impasse. I still think there is a silent majority, there is a liberal elite, but time is running out.
Everybody wants democracy to work. Nobody wants the army to come back again. If it’s going to be a coalition government, however weak it might be, people want the process to continue. They want another election. Let democracy be solidified.
Everyone wanted the Weimar republic (Germany, 1919-33) to work but it collapsed.
True. If this government does not get a grip of things, we could go down that road. But I’m hoping that with the kind of pressure coming from society and other parts of the establishment, the leadership would emerge. If we don’t get a grip on things quickly, in a year or two, vacuums are going to be created, increasingly filled by extremism.
So, we have just about a year or two?
I think until the next election. We want another election. It has to be carried out with a greater semblance of law and order than we have today.
Is there a Khomeini-like figure lurking in the wings?
No, that’s a big difference. There’s no Khomeini in Pakistan.
What needs to be done to ensure this country does not just teeter over?
There has to be greater leadership from the government to bring the political parties together to combat this kind of extremism.
How, when everyone is questioning the leadership of Asif Zardari and Gilani?
I’m stressing two or three factors. One, there is going to be enormous international pressure and there is already and we are extremely vulnerable to international pressure because of our economy, because of Afghanistan and other things.
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Second, there is going to be pressure from civil society, even though it may be small and not fully articulate. It does have a lot of control in media, in NGOs and a lot of development work. The third is the silent majority. They have to be mobilised. And, the most important thing is that we have to lay at rest the kind of foreign policy adventurism we have been undertaking for so many years, whether it’s in Afghanistan or Kashmir. We have to focus on our domestic ills. We have to end this diplomatic isolation in the region.
You are hoping for a miracle – change in army attitude, in the character of the president and prime minister?
The situation is so dire, it’s not a question of miracles. I think all the various elements in the political spectrum do realise they have to do something to save the country.
None of them seem capable of doing it.
We have to give them more time. And, there is this pressure from within. Pakistanis have to resolve this issue. It can’t be outsiders.
If the majority continues to be silent, it would suggest Pakistanis are not prepared to save themselves.
That can be down the road. At the moment, we are looking as to how we can mobilise the silent majority and how civil society and the government can be pushed.
Who is going to do that?
There is a small but a very vocal civil society. There is the media. There are various other positive elements. It’s a very vulnerable situation. But the hope is that 170 million people would not allow their country to crash inwards. I hope we will get through this.