 "Rains in 2013 would definitely be better than last year: L S Rathore")
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon for 2013 which if materializes will mean that country will not have a widespread drought for the third consecutive year. The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June provide almost 70-90% of the total precipitation that India receives in a year. IMD Director General, L S Rathore tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee that all indications available so far suggest that rains in 2013 would be much better than rains in 2012. Edited Excerpts
Overall, how to judge this year’s monsoon, though you have said these are early forecasts?
I feel that overall rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. In 2012 we had predicted rains to be around 96% of LPA, while the actual showers were around 93% of LPA. But, this year we have predicted that quantitatively rains are expected to be around 98% of LPA, but with much higher confidence both in quantitative and probabilistic terms. Definitely rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. Moreover, convergence of large number of models indicates a normal monsoon this year, both national and international.
There has been some talk that rains in southern most part of the country will be not so good this year. Does your prediction say something like this?
No, as far I’m concerned there is no cause of worry for entire peninsular India and as of now the indications are that rains would be normal in southern parts as well.
So what impact of normal rains do you anticipate on agriculture and overall economy?
The very signal that rains would be normal this year is good for agriculture. But it must be remembered that even in normal monsoon years, rains might be excess in some pockets and deficient in some. But, on the whole I feel that monsoon this year would be good for agriculture and the overall economy in general.
In your forecast, you have said that out of five indicators which are studied by IMD to come to the monsoon forecast, three are positive for rains this year and two are negative. What does it mean?
Well, saying that 3 indicators are positive and 2 are negative hence rains would be normal or sub-normal is wrong as there is no one to one correlation between these indicators. Atmospheres are dynamic and so also is ocean and both are not interrelated. So to lay emphasis on anyone indicator and arrive at a conclusion is wrong.
Overall, how to judge this year’s monsoon, though you have said these are early forecasts?
I feel that overall rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. In 2012 we had predicted rains to be around 96% of LPA, while the actual showers were around 93% of LPA. But, this year we have predicted that quantitatively rains are expected to be around 98% of LPA, but with much higher confidence both in quantitative and probabilistic terms. Definitely rains in 2013 would be better than 2012. Moreover, convergence of large number of models indicates a normal monsoon this year, both national and international.
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No, as far I’m concerned there is no cause of worry for entire peninsular India and as of now the indications are that rains would be normal in southern parts as well.
So what impact of normal rains do you anticipate on agriculture and overall economy?
The very signal that rains would be normal this year is good for agriculture. But it must be remembered that even in normal monsoon years, rains might be excess in some pockets and deficient in some. But, on the whole I feel that monsoon this year would be good for agriculture and the overall economy in general.
In your forecast, you have said that out of five indicators which are studied by IMD to come to the monsoon forecast, three are positive for rains this year and two are negative. What does it mean?
Well, saying that 3 indicators are positive and 2 are negative hence rains would be normal or sub-normal is wrong as there is no one to one correlation between these indicators. Atmospheres are dynamic and so also is ocean and both are not interrelated. So to lay emphasis on anyone indicator and arrive at a conclusion is wrong.