Rana must keep ear to the ground

If the decade of the eighties was of lack of confidence and that of nineties full of confidence then the maiden elections of the new century seem to be that of over confidence for Kashiram Rana, a five-time sitting MP from Surat and Union rural development minister.

Looking to the developments that have taken place coupled with the lack of development of the Surat airport a major issue in the Surat Lok Sabha seat, Rana hailed as the "supremo" by his followers surely needs to keep his ear firmly to the ground.

After two setbacks in 1980 and 1980, Rana was successful in wresting the Surat Lok Sabha seat, one of the biggest seats amongst all the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, from the Congress in 1989 when the VP Singh wave was all over the country.

After 1989, Rana was successful not only defending his seat in the 1991, 1996, 1998 and 1999 polls but also managed to increase his winning margins and in the process trouncing several Congress stalwarts including late CD Patel, Manubhai Kotadiya and Sahadev Chaudhary.

In the 1999 elections, he defeated Rupin Patchigar of the Congress. Patchigar an eminent chartered accountant and the youngest president of the Southern Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry was considered the ideal candidate to take on Rana but even before he could give a decent fight to Rana, the divided house of Congress ensured that he faces defeat even before the first vote was cast.

The Surat Lok Sabha seat is unique in the sense that it is the sheer managerial, administrative, muscle and money power of the BJP, which bulldozes the highly fragmented Congress. With a high percentage of migrant population, caste and community factors have not played an important role in the Surat Lok Sabha seat as they do in other parliamentary constituencies.

Rana himself belongs to the backward "Gola" community, which is basically engaged in the business of zari. The Surat seat comprises of Patels (Kolis, Kadwas and Leuwas), the traditional base is provided by the Ghancis, Golas and Khatris, the high percentage of the Hindi speaking populace, which has come down from Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and the Telugu and Maharashtrian population. The Muslims also have a presence with about 14 per cent share.

At a press conference last week, Rana thundered, "My win is already a foregone conclusion. Even if the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi contests from Surat I am not worried."

Well in a way, Rana's confidence or could it be described as over confidence may not be off the mark for he has already launched his campaigning in grand style by initiating a mini "Bharat Uday Yatra" on March 17 from Surat city while the Congress has not even finalised its candidate.

One of Rana's main plus point is the able campaign manager he has in his trusted lieutenant Fakirbhai Chauhan. Known as the "think tank" and the "Pramod Mahajan of Surat", Chauhan has elections after elections shown his dextrous skills in managing the polls of Rana.

In the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections, the joke that went around was "do not inquire as to who is winning the Surat seat just ask by what margin is Kashiram winning."

But after getting elected in 1999, Rana was made the textile minister and during his tenure in Delhi the Surat textile industry, which manufacturers over 60 per cent of the total man-made fabric requirement of the country had to wade through hot waters.

The textile industry also went on three big strikes, the last one big against the introduction of Cenvat in in 2003. Manubhai Patel the maverick chief of the Federation of Gujarat Weavers Association, a protégé of Rana, who contested the municipal polls on a BJP ticket has also parted ways and has now joined the Congress.

One of the most important factors that Rana will have to take into consideration is the C.R. Patil factor. Once the blue eyed boy of Rana, the beleaguered senior BJP leader who had nursed the ambitions of getting nominated to the Rajya Sabha (which started the war between the two) is now out on bail in the Diamond Jubilee loan scam case.

And all for his misfortune and his sojourn to the jail, CR Patil blames Rana and is also understood to have taken a pledge to use all his "good offices" to ensure the defeat of Rana.

The second major issue, which may hound Rana, is the lack of an airport in Surat. Though this has been made the election issue in almost all the elections, Rana in spite of all his efforts has failed in the past 15 years to give a full fledged airport to Surat.

Besides the highly vocal Patel lobby, which controls the diamond, industry is also not overtly Rana friendly. But as an observer states, "The fight in Surat has become lopsided. If the Congress fights like a united party and fields a strong candidate like Patchigar then there would be some interest in the contest."

All said and done 2004 is definitely different and deep inside his heart even Rana knows that over confidence leads to complacency and results in even some of the best cricketing teams losing to lesser known rivals.