Recovery tracker: Dip in railway numbers, fewer flyers ahead of Diwali

Weekly vehicle registrations surge to nearly 600,000

The run-up to Diwali saw a decline in some weekly indicators of economic activity.

The Indian Railways registered lower growth in the quantity of goods it carried. Freight loading was up 2 per cent for the latest week compared to 5.9 per cent previously. The money it made from carrying these goods, called freight revenue, was up 10.5 per cent. It was 12.4 per cent in the previous week and 13.4 per cent before that-indicative of a slowing trend (chart 1).

There was a 3.2 per cent dip in the number of air passengers. Airlines carried an average of 362,000 passengers daily in the last week compared to 374,000 in the previous week. The average number of daily flights remained above 2,700 (chart 2).

The public holiday for Diwali meant that city traffic declined significantly, according to data from global location technology firm TomTom International. New Delhi traffic congestion was down 72 per cent compared to 2019 levels. Mumbai traffic congestion was down 77 per cent (chart 3).

The bright spot has been more people buying vehicles than before. The weekly number touched 582,000. This is 14 per cent higher than the 511,000 seen during the same period in 2019 (chart 4).

Mobility data from search engine Google is available as of 15th October. A look at state-wise numbers shows how much each state has changed in terms of workplace visits compared to pre-lockdown days, calculated based on anonymised location data. The figures may not be comparable across states because of regional differences but provide a sense of each state’s return to workplace normality on a standalone basis. The analysis looked at the top five largest state economies based on gross domestic product before the pandemic. Every state has workplace visits up at least 25 per cent compared to the times before the pandemic took hold (chart 5).

The total amount of electricity generated in the country remained steady in the latest week. The total 3,888 million units generated on a seven-day moving average basis was marginally higher than the 3,887 million units in the previous week, based on reporting day data.  The gap widened over 2019 primarily because of a dip in generation seen then (chart 6).

Business Standard tracks these indicators as a way of getting a weekly picture of the economy. Analysts globally track similar indicators since official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. These high frequency indicators give a more up-to-date picture of economic conditions amid the volatility caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The traffic data is as of Monday morning 9 a.m. on October 24. Search engine Google provided mobility data as of October 15. All other data is as of Sunday, October 23.