Recovery tracker: Power generation up, more people get back to office

Weekly indicators of economic activity show increased traction amid declining cases.

Power generation is inching closer to double-digit gains over 2019, even as mobility shows signs of rising once again. Other indicators like traffic and emissions also show some signs of recovery, though more in some parts of the country than others.

Some 4,312 million units of electricity were generated in India on a seven-day rolling average basis for the week ended Sunday 4, July as summer temperatures soared and irrigation demand rose due to the paddy sowing season. Analysts believe that power demand also rose last week as Covid-19 restrictions on economic activity ended in most parts of the country and many industries are ramping-up production to meet demand backlog.  The latest week’s numbers are 7.5 per cent higher than the corresponding period in 2019. The year 2019 is used it predates Covid-19 hitting India. Gains are higher over 2020 (see chart 1).

Almost 75 per cent of workplace visits are back. This is based on mobility data from search engine Google which tracks people’s movements based on anonymised location data. The data is released with a lag. The latest is as of June 30. Essential shopping including grocery and pharmacy visits are 11.6 per cent above normal. Retail and recreation visits are still down 32 per cent (see chart 2).

Traffic congestion has also picked up in major cities. New Delhi Traffic is 63 per cent back to normal. Mumbai traffic is 52 per cent back. Traffic congestion data is based on statistics from global location technology firm TomTom International. New Delhi’s relative traffic recovery has overtaken Mumbai’s recovery over the last fortnight (see chart 3).

The Indian Railways are carrying 26.5 per cent more goods than for the seven days ending Sunday 4th July, than in the same period last year. Earnings from the goods carried are up 26.8 per cent (see chart 4). Both figures are higher than the previous week.

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. It comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Levels had dropped as the country went into lockdown in 2020. Delhi emissions are now only three per cent below 2019 levels based on a seven-day rolling average basis. Mumbai’s emissions are below 2019 levels (see chart 5,6).

All data is as of Sunday 4, July, except mobility numbers from Google. They are released with a lag. The latest is as of June 30.

Business Standard tracks these weekly indicators of economic recovery as a means of getting a sense of how the economy is currently doing. Official macroeconomic numbers are often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries went into lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic.

The number of Covid-19 cases in India daily have fallen to under 50,000 as of July 4. It was over 400,000 in the beginning of May.