Recovery tracker: Slowdown in power generation, freight activity

Essential shopping up with rising pharmacy and grocery visits

Weekly indicators of economic activity showed some signs of weakness amid a dip in electricity generation and railway freight growth.

Power generation continued to suffer from anaemic growth with a sharp dip in the last three days of the week ending October 17, 2021 that could be attributed to coal shortage. It remained higher than the corresponding week in 2019 and 2020. Power utilities across the country generated nearly 3900 million units (MUs) of electricity on average per day during the week ending October 17, 2021, down from the previous week. Generation was up over 10 per cent over 2020. The numbers reflect a sharp fall in electricity generation during this period in 2020 (see chart 1).

Growth in the quantity of goods that the Indian Railways carried fell to 6.1 per cent. It was 10.1 per cent in the previous week. Growth in revenue earned from the goods carried fell to 18.7 per cent from 21.6 per cent previously.  The latest figures reflect growth for the seven days ending October 17, compared to the same period in 2020. Coal and coke (a fuel produced from coal) accounted saw a 27.8 per cent rise in quantity carried amid reports of a shortage (see chart 2).

Traffic congestion was lower in the latest week, show statistics from global location technology firm TomTom International. It fell to 33 per cent below normal in Mumbai from 21 per cent below normal in the previous week. New Delhi traffic congestion fell to 22 per cent below normal from 12 per cent below normal in the previous week (see chart 3).

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. It comes from vehicles and industrial activity. Higher levels can point to more factories and industries at work. Delhi’s emissions were around 18 per cent below 2019 levels. Mumbai emissions are down 77 per cent. Both have improved over the previous week (see chart 4,5).

An increasing number of people are stepping out for essential shopping. Grocery and pharmacy visits are 42.7 per cent above pre-Covid levels, according to mobility data that search engine Google tracks. It tracks people's movements using anonymised location data. Workplace visits are around 95 per cent of what is seen in normal times (see chart 6).

Google data comes with a lag. The latest is as of October 11. All other data is as of Sunday 17th October. Business Standard tracks these indicators to get a current picture of the economy. Official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries went into lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic.