Recovery tracker: Workplace visits on the rise, Delhi emissions gain

Improvement in goods carried moderated shows latest rail data

More people are going to their workplaces in 2021 as the number of reported Covid-19 cases for India continues to decline.

Mobility data shows that number of office visits were nearly 88 per cent of that seen during pre-Covid times. The number of daily cases have fallen over 80 per cent from the September 2020 peak of nearly 100,000 new cases a day. It is currently at around 15,000 cases a day, shows numbers from pandemic tracker covid19india.org.

In addition to mobility data; Business Standard tracks pollution levels, goods carried by the Indian railways, the amount of power generated across the country and traffic congestion in key cities. These high frequency indicators provide a picture of economic activity ahead of the release of official data. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators to get a sense of the fast-changing situation on the ground, as countries undergo lockdowns to control the spread of the pandemic.

Search engine Google uses anonymised location data to track mobility. It shows that workplace visits had fallen to around 34 per cent of what is seen during normal times, at the height of the lockdown. This has since risen to 87.9 per cent of normal visits. Google releases the data with a lag. The latest is as of January 12th (see chart 1).

 

Power generation had fallen by nearly 30 per cent as offices and factories shut down in the lockdown that started in March. It has since climbed back to normal levels. Power generated was 3.8 per cent higher than the same period last year for the seven days ending Sunday, 17th January.  Gains were under three per cent for the previous week (see chart 2).

 

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. The pollutant comes from industrial activity and vehicles.  The levels of the pollutant in Delhi were around 14 per cent higher than the same period last year for the week ending Sunday 17th January. They were down by around 20 per cent in the previous week. Mumbai’s emissions, based on Bandra locality data, are down 97 per cent (see chart 3,4).

 

Traffic congestion is at levels similar to the previous week.  Congestion measured at 9 am on Monday morning (18th January) was 48 per cent lower than 2019 in New Delhi, shows data from global location technology firm TomTom International. It was 42 per cent lower in Mumbai (see chart 5).

 

The Indian Railways’ year-on-year gains in quantity of goods carried dropped from 11.1 per cent in the previous week to 6.9 per cent for the seven days ending Sunday, January 17th.  Earnings from the goods carried dropped from 5.6 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

Twitter: @SachinMampatta , @KantKrishna30