Recovery tracker: Workplace visits rise to April-end levels as curbs ease

Retail & recreation visits at nearly 60% of normal times

Workplace visits are at nearly 70 per cent of what was seen during times of normalcy. Other indicators like traffic and emissions also show signs of increased activity.

The number of daily confirmed Covid cases varied between 50,000 and 70,000 for the week ending Sunday, compared to a peak of over 400,000 cases in May.

People are stepping out of their homes more as restrictions and lockdowns across the country ease. Visits to parks, transit stations and essential shopping have all seen a rise, according to mobility data from search engine Google. The numbers are based on anonymised location data. It is released with a lag and the latest is as of June 16 (see chart 1). All other data is as of Sunday, June 20.  

The lifting of restrictions has also seen a consequent increase in traffic on the roads. Traffic has been climbing since mid-May. Traffic congestion is now more than 50 per cent of normal times in both Mumbai and New Delhi, show numbers from global location technology firm TomTom International (see chart 2).

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Both Mumbai and Delhi have seen a rise in emissions relative to levels seen earlier. These levels are, though, still lower than what was seen in 2019 (see charts 3, 4).

The demand for power, however, seems to be flagging after two weeks of revival. The electricity generation last was down around 5 per cent compared to the same week two years ago in 2019. The weekly generation was up 4 per cent on average last week over 2020, down from 11 per cent year-on-year growth in the previous week. The softening in power demand could, however, be attributed to the timely onset of monsoon and its fast spread in major parts of the country rather than a general decline in economic activity. We will have to wait a few weeks before ascertaining the reason (see chart 5).

The Indian Railways, meanwhile, is carrying more goods than in 2020. The national lockdown last year created a low base for this year’s numbers. This appears to be wearing off gradually. The latest week’s year-on-year growth in goods carried is 14.1 per cent compared to 30.1 per cent last year. The earnings from the goods carried is up 20.4 per cent compared to 41.5 per cent in the previous year (see chart 6). The national lockdown last year began to ease in June.

Business Standard tracks these indicators as a means of getting a current sense of how the economy is doing. Official macroeconomic numbers are usually released with a lag. 

Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators to get an idea of how economies of various countries are responding to lockdowns imposed to control the Covid-19 pandemic.