Hard-fought election defies predictions, as UDF and LDF are faced with similar challenges.
Predictions about who will constitute the government in Kerala are harder this time than ever before. In Kerala, the United Democratic Front ( UDF) and Left Democratic Front (LDF) have been in power alternatively since 1982.
But this time, out of the six post poll surveys, five predict a narrow win for UDF and one survey favours LDF. All the five surveys that give UDF an edge indicate that it will get between 75 and 85 seats in the 140-strong Assembly. The CNN-IBN-Week survey said LDF would get 68-77 seats this time.
Still, it is advantage UDF, thanks to various political and communal factors. After the 2006 election, both the Lok Sabha and the local bodies elections were won by UDF. The BJP might open its account this time.(PARTYWISE POLLING PERCENTAGE IN LAST POLLS)
Major religious groups such as the Christians and Muslims are vehemently opposing the Left Front because of its stand on various issues like professional colleges and highway development. The Christian religious leadership had openly crtiticised the decisions of the government on self-financing colleges. So, these two major religions will support the UDF this time. Nair Service Society recently revealed that it would support the UDF this time, abandoning its traditional political neutrality. Except in the northern part of the state, Congress and Kerala Congress (M) will get a clear advantage in the central and southern districts of the state. As usual Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is likely to dominate the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district.
The UDF has also had a lot of handicaps: the imprisonment of R Balakrishna Pillai, a prominent UDF leader and more criminal revelations against PK Kunhalikutty, the most powerful IUML leader. The ruling LDF government succeeded in sorting the long-pending issues in the IT infrastructure project, Smart City. The LDF government also succeeded in control of prices of essential commodities and its popular programme of ration rice for all card holders Rs 2 a kg created goodwill.
There were no serious allegations against the LDF government, though it failed in the industrial and infrastructure development of the state. The UDF capitalised on this and got the support of the middle and upper middle classes.