The stage is set for a showdown in the politically-sensitive state of Uttar Pradesh where rankled by the unrest brewing amongst its cadres, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has taken up the gauntlet against the ruling coalition government of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Even as Chief Minister Mayawati approaches the half-way mark of her six-month tenure, political activity has intensified in the state where the government, in its drive to improve law and order, has arrested cadres of the SP against whom cases have been either registered or pending. The arrests have served to send shivers down the ranks of the SP, despite the fact that nothing bordering on selective prosecution has come to light.
There pervades a general feeling in the cadres that they are being targeted while the anti-socials in the BSP and the BJP have been left unscathed, although, compared to its political opponents, the SP appears to have the greater number of anti-socials. The SP cadres are also smarting in the wake of the defeat at Farrukhabad, where the United Front (UF) and the Congress combined forces against the BJP supported by the BSP. The SP increased its vote bank to 52,000 from the 30,000 it garnered in the 96 Vidhan Sabha elections but still finished behind the BJP which swelled its margin of victory by more than 19,000 votes. The trend, if repeated across the state, may not augur well for the SP.
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Again, the SP leaders aspiring to a belief that is widespread in the state feel that Mayawati will not relinquish the chief ministers post at the end her six-month tenure. BSP supremo Kanshi Ram has, however, at meetings during the by-elections in Delhi and UP where the BSP worked for the success of theBharatiya Janata Party candidate, reiterated his partys resolve to honour the agreement of shared chief ministership for a period of six months each.
Fed by the fear psychosis running through its ranks, the SP, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, has been compelled to take the combat into the BSP-BJP camp.
The tactic of the party is clear to galvanize its cadres to take up the fight with the administration by exaggerating accidental violence and presenting them as clashes between the administration and the people.
Mulayam Singh has declared that in certain circumstances violence can be resorted to counter violence and has asked his partymen to take up the fight against the state government seriously.
The language of the campaign has been such as to incite the Chief Minister to retaliate. In his speech before the MLAs, MPs and the district committee presidents, Mulayam said that Mayawati has alleged that the SP cadres wanted to rape her. He added, There was hardly anything attractive in Mayawati, that the SP cadres would want to rape her. Mayawati retaliated swiftly, and held a press conference where she declared: The only allegation which I have levelled against Mulayam is that he wanted to kill me, referring to the state guest house incident. In its bid to consolidate its position, the Samajwadi party is attempting to protect its Muslim base by trying to club the BSP with the BJP to dissuade the Muslims from crossing over to the opposite camp in view of the BJP bid to woo the community.
Thus at every conceivable opportunity, the SP chief blames the administration for prosecuting Muslims.
Mulayam has also publicly proclaimed that he can talk to the BJP only if they agree to four demands which are all Muslim-related and include the dropping of the demand for a uniform civil code.
The party is hoping that the law and order situation in the state deteriorates sufficiently to ensure the imposition of Presidents rule. If this does not happen the party has pinned its hopes on Mayawati putting a wrong step forward before the end of her six-months in power, thus giving them an opportunity to burst upon the political scene.
In the meantime, the partys gameplan appears aimed at fostering greater understanding between the BSP and the BJP to ensure that the SPs Muslim base remains intact, giving it the required impetus to emerge as the only force to counter the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.