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| While finance ministry officials do not expect the expenditures to go beyond the budgeted estimates of Rs 438,795.07 crore, they do not anticipate any substantial savings either. This is because of the escalation in spending on some of the major areas that makes up the annual expenditure bill of the Centre. |
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| Of these, the most substantial is the almost 50 per cent rise in food subsidy, which has shot up to Rs 16,006 crore, from Rs 11,595 crore in 2002-03, at the end of the first half of 2003-04. |
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| Similarly, the petroleum subsidy has also risen sharply. Between April and September, the total bill on this head is Rs 3,729 crore, compared with zero in 2002-03 in the same period. |
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| The finance ministry also had bear the burden of the financial institutions. This comprises the support it had to extend to various public sector financial institutions, including the Unit Trust of India. The total sum is Rs 3, 018 crore against Rs 638 core in the April-September period of 2002-03. |
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| In last fiscal, the Centre had made a savings of Rs 6,296 crore out of its gross expenditure of Rs 404, 013.25 crore. The same situation occurred in 2001-02 also. There was a savings of over Rs 9,000 crore compared with an expenditure bill of Rs 364,436.40 crore for the entire fiscal. |
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| The finance ministry, however, hopes that the vigorous cost cutting measure it has undertaken with various ministries will stave off any rise in expenditure beyond the budgeted target. This also includes the impact of the recently introduced cash management concept for nine ministries with effect from Budget 2003-04. |
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| The officials also said the fiscal deficit of 5.6 per cent of the GDP should not be breached. This optimism is based on the impressive performance of tax revenues, especially that of direct taxes. |
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| As far as corporate tax collections, the revenue department has estimated that if it continues to maintain the healthy 36 per cent rise it has registered so far, direct tax collections will be about Rs 105,000 crore. This will be a substantial Rs 10,000 crore more than the Budget estimates and should take care of the possible shortfall in the excise tax collections. |
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| The other area of worry is non-tax revenues. Dividend from public sector organizations, in the April to September period has grossed Rs 10,892 crore against Rs 12,277 crore obtained in the same period of 2002-03. |
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