With the United States declaring that it would not mediate on Kashmir, Pakistani efforts to bring the issue up at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Edinburgh next month has received a setback, according to diplomats. But we will not be surprised if subtle, indirect pressures continue to be exerted, one Indian official here said.
Pakistan has routinely used the meet, held every two years, as a platform to raise the Kashmir issue. Its plea is always turned down on the ground that bilateral issues are not discussed at the CHOGM.
Coming a month after the meetings between US President Bill Clinton and the Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan, the CHOGM at Edinburgh, Scotland, this year has assumed added significance. Host country Britain has been working closely with the US under the new Labour government. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hold a meeting with Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and also meet his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in the course of the Commonwealth summit from October 23 to 27.
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The British are expected to strongly back the US push for a decision on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), officials said. President Clinton had said in his address to the 52nd Unites Nations General Assembly that he would like to enter the CTBT into force as soon as possible. He spoke even of a CTBT this year.
Mr Clinton described the CTBT as the largest sought, hardest fought prize in the history of arms control. The Tory government of former Prime Minister John Major had said earlier that Britain would like to see India sign the CTBT. The Labour government is now expected to push more energetically in that direction at CHOGM.
Gujral has said clearly that we are not going to sign the CTBT in its present form. Indian officials here expect differences to surface over the CTBT at the Commonwealth meet.
Differences are also expected to surface over Kashmir, though the US government has stated a position similar to what the Labour government has been saying of late - that they are willing to offer their good offices if both parties want it.
The Labour government has at least for the moment chosen not to bring out from the shelves the resolution at the party conference in 1995 which says Labour has a duty to intervene in Kashmir to resolve a dispute that arises from its position as the former imperial power.
The British position on distant troubles echoes the views expressed by President Clinton who said, We dare not be complacent or indifferent, trouble in a far corner can become a plague in everyones house. Officials see this as a veiled reference to a nuclear threat.
British foreign secretary Robin Cook said in a foreign policy mission statement announced soon after the new government took over: This is an age of internationalism. We are instant witnesses in our sitting rooms through the medium of television to human tragedy in distant lands, and are therefore obliged to accept moral responsibility for our response.
Indian officials say that the British, like the Americans, are not seeking to play an active role in negotiations between India and Pakistan for now. But that is only their current position, an official said. On principle both governments say they have a right to respond to events anywhere in ways they think fit.
The Indian government is looking for meeting grounds in the economic field to offset differences on the political one. The British government has announced an official emphasis on economic cooperation at CHOGM this year. India will be represented by finance minister P. Chidambaram at a meeting of finance ministers in London to precede the main meeting.
There will also be a parallel meeting in Edinburgh for non-governmental organisations, where human rights will be the primary issue on agenda.
Officials do not expect any move by Britain to play a direct role in disputes between India and Pakistan. But over the CTBT and again on Kashmir under the garb of human rights, Indian officials are preparing to face a good deal of subtle diplomatic pressure.