Shiv Sena at a crossroads

Can bounce back in Mumbai and Thane local elections

Save the tiger, a massive hoarding close to the Siddhi Vinayak Temple warns everybody that India’s national animal could soon become extinct. On the other side of the street, Balasaheb Thackeray smiles benignly from a giant poster put up by Shiv Sainiks wishing him on his birthday that fell on January 23. In the background is the picture of a tiger – the Shiv Sena emblem – roaring away to glory.

The irony cannot be missed. The Shiv Sena tiger too is at a crossroads. Nothing can be more symbolic than the fact that Mumbaikars have cocked a snook at the Shiv Sena by turning up in large numbers for My Name Is Khan. Long queues in front of Mumbai’s multiplexes prove that the Shiv Sena has lost its touch, several observers said.

The MNIK episode is only the latest in a series of setbacks for the party beginning with its defeat in the elections to the Lok Sabha and the Maharashtra State Assembly, followed by cricketer Sachin Tendulkar’s observations that he is an Indian first and then a proud Maharashtrian.

Even before it could recover from that embarrassment came Rahul Gandhi’s ride in a local Mumbai train. The enthusiasm of Mumbaikars around what some said was a Gandhi’s political gimmick showed that the Marathi Manoos ignored the Shiv Sena’s call to show black flags to Gandhi.

The Shiv Sena is however unperturbed. Sanjay Raut, Shiv Sena MP and a close confidant of Shiv Sena Executive President Uddhav Thackeray claimed that the party’s agitation against Shah Rukh Khan (the lead actor of MNIK) has been successful.

“Look at the tight police bandobast in Mumbai movie halls. The situation is quite different in rural and semi-urban areas where people have joined the agitation. The Shiv Sena will continue to take up the cause of Marathi Manoos despite police actions”, he said.

But veteran observers said it would be a mistake to write off the Shiv Sena so soon. The party may lie low for a while but may become aggressive and rake up the Marathi Manoos issue again in the run-up to the crucial elections to the municipal corporations of Mumbai and Thane slated for 2012.

It’s a major worry for the party that the youth, once its loyal supporter, has dumped it to join MNS. Raj has not lost any opportunity to hit back at his cousin, Uddhav. One of Raj’s favourite campaign lines is that the Shiv Sena is being run a like a family-owned company which is going nowhere. Uddhav has failed to come out with a riposte.

Pratap Asbe, a senior political analyst, said that the Shiv Sena has to rethink its strategy for survival. “One thing is clear that the party has failed to mobilise the Marathi Manoos on its recent agitations. The party will have to take up broader issues and launch agitations against price rise, deteriorating conditions of farmers etc.”

Hussain Dalwai, a spokesman for the Maharashtra Congress Party, said that the Shiv Sena’s future is uncertain. “The party cannot be totally discarded but it will have a tough time for its survival,” he said. Observers said one major reason for its problems is the absence of charismatic leadership. It was always a one-man army, and Balasaheb’s advancing age has left it rudderless.