Singh announces J&K troop cuts

Infiltration on the decline, armed forces do not want to fritter away hard-earned gains

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today announced that there would be a "thinning out" of troops in Jammu and Kashmir for the duration of winter, while the Army told the government that it was opposed to an internal cease-fire (non-initiation of combat operations) in the Valley following its successful run against militant groups trying to infiltrate from Pakistan.

The Prime Minister's statement has come as a sweetener ahead of his two-day visit to the state, starting on November 18. The J&K situation was discussed at the Cabinet Committee on Security ahead of Singh's visit.

Figures collated from information provided by the Army Headquarters suggest that the Indian Army has made impressive gains in not just ending infiltration""and exfiltration""but also rounding up militants who had entered India and were operating in the Valley.

From an estimated 3,500 militants operating in the Valley in the October-November 2003, the number has come down to 1,700 for the same period this year. By the end of next year, conservative estimates in the Army expect this figure to come down to 1,000.

Already down to one tenths of last year's strength, the numerical strength of militants will come down further once they start descending from the heights as winter advances and find they cannot return and are hunted down inside the Valley.

For this reason, the Army is telling the government that an internal cease-fire at this stage will fritter away hard-earned gains. It is, however, not opposed to a cease-fire along the lines of the one operating in Nagaland, where militants are allowed to bear arms but are sequestered in camps, thereby rendered harmless.

Army sources say the armed forces have a military advantage in Jammu and Kashmir of the kind they have never enjoyed before and would like to follow this up to its logical end.

Sources emphasise that if the government is considering a cease-fire, it should operate only against local groups like Hizb-ul-Mujahideen and not against foreigners who are currently in a 50:50 ratio in the Valley.

These gains have been possible, say Army sources, because of fencing, use of sensors and the pattern of deployment that has brought both infiltration and exfiltration down to a trickle.

Fencing deters stealthy visits from across the border; and sensors are even more effective because thermal imaging systems enable formations even far away from the site of infiltration to make out images, determine the grid reference and rush reinforcements to the spot. Forces are deployed both ahead of and behind the fencing that further insulates the border.

A school of thought in the Indian establishment believes that credit for the restraint in backing infiltration resulting in lower levels, is due to Pakistan, which is in the process of suspending its patronage of militancy in the larger interests of Indo-Pak friendship.

But Army sources say infiltration has come down, not for want of trying by Pakistan but for want of succeeding. For instance, in the first one week of November, four infiltration efforts were mounted from across the border but all of them were foiled. This gives some insight into Pakistan's motivations.