Soft on Naidu, BJP draws a blank

BJP's misreading of public pulse in Andhra Pradesh has had direct effect on its fortunes nationally

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state has not just drawn a nought in the Lok Sabha results in Andhra Pradesh, but its miserable understanding of the public pulse here has largely spoilt its chances of forming the next government at the Centre.

In the last Lok Sabha, BJP represented eight constituencies from the state while its major partner Telugu Desam Party (TDP) represented 31 seats out of the total 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The Vajpayee factor which worked wonders in the last general elections has not proved to be beneficial at all this time.

In the 1999 elections, the popularity of Vajpayee rode high following the Kargil conflict and the testing of the nuclear bomb, fetching about 18 per cent votes for BJP in the 1999 elections in the state. At present, the vote percentage has nose-dived to less than three per cent.

This time round the Congress alone has won 29 seats and its allies have won another seven, which has strongly changed the arithmetic at the Centre. MIM has retained its lone Hyderabad constituency.

As the BJP state leaders had widely proclaimed that they would sail or sink with TDP, they did the latter by tying themselves tightly to the TDP, which was losing its buoyancy. In fact, the BJP has lost its base in its traditional strongholds by relinquishing the Telangana statehood demand.

The BJP leadership's decision to go in for early polls was largely influenced by Naidu's early dissolution of the state Assembly. In fact, the decision to go in for early elections was taken by BJP in Hyderabad.

Once known for his opposition to simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections for fear that it would ruin the prospects of TDP, Naidu later took a diametrically opposite view when he badly needed to cash in on Vajpayee's image to come back to power.

In fact, it was the TDP that gained from its alliance with BJP in earlier elections.

Though it polled less number of votes than the Congress in the 1999 elections, it could still retain power largely due to the strong performance of BJP. Even in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-TDP combine wrested 39 out of the 42 constituencies due to the simultaneous conduct of LS and Assembly elections in 1999.

This time round when the state BJP depended mainly on the strength of its major partner for improving its position, it was the TDP which pinned hopes on the 'feel good factor' played up by the BJP to help it achieve a hat trick in the state.

With the TDP's support being crucial for the survival of the NDA, the state BJP leaders had to forego the long-term interests of the party and acceded to the whims of Telugu Desam. This has proved to be BJP's greatest undoing and the very survival of the party in Andhra Pradesh is at stake.

The BJP state leaders had for long been used to being "treated well by Naidu for remaining voiceless friends".

Naidu also at times showed intolerance to any kind of criticism from the ally. Being a local man, Venkaiah Naidu at the party's helm of affairs, has also proved to be a liability for the state BJP.

His opinions were seen to be influenced by Telugu Desam and a particular social grouping of the affluent coastal Andhra region.

The state BJP leaders lost touch with the ground realities which resulted in their total rout in the current elections. It could get only two seats in the Assembly elections.

It appears, the BJP national leaders, some of them known for their political acumen, too believed in the magical powers of Chandrababu Naidu. Despite several indications of a deepening crises in the agriculture sector and growing people's resentment coming their way, they never tried to advise Naidu to shift his priorities.

The voters of Andhra Pradesh seem to have expressed their strong disapproval over this, by distancing themselves from both the parties together.