Sonia draws the line, says no early polls

The leadership feels a win is uncertain as the Budget sops are yet to deliver.

Although Budget 2008-09 provided it a vote-winning formula in the form of debt waiver for small farmers and tax concessions for the middle class, the Congress is in no mood for an early Lok Sabha election. It has stepped up its campaigning efforts, though.

At a last week meeting at 7, Race Course Road, Congress President Sonia Gandhi made clear this political bottom line to her party managers.

"I can't go for elections now, there are problems", she said. The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister Shivraj Patil and Defence Minister AK Antony.

According to sources, the Congress thinks the Budget announcements are yet to deliver and no one knows how the coming monsoon will affect farmers.

The defeats in recent Assembly elections are also being seen as signals, say sources. Moreover, the top leadership believes that price rise, instead of the Budget sops, will be the main issue.

Gandhi also told her core team that it was free to decide how to manage the alliance, especially the equations with the Left.

The UPA-Left panel on the Indo-US nuclear deal met last Monday against this backdrop and decided to give over a month to the Left to "study" the various aspects of the nuclear safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that will be the first step towards operationalising the deal.

"We noticed a significant change in the mood of the government. In the initial meetings, they were trying to wrap up the discussions as fast as possible. Now, it seems they are in no hurry," said a Left leader.

This, however, does not tamp down the embers of hope in the party on the future of the nuclear deal. The target of the nuclear deal committee under the leadership of Mukherjee is to squeeze out the Left's permission to go to the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG).

The UPA's logic is simple: The fuel supply is in the NSG's domain. The IAEA and the NSG negotiations together will give complete picture of what India can get. Its logic is that the NSG negotiations are necessary even if India wants to clinch such deals with other countries like Russia and France.