Sonia to meet Pawar, NCP faces split

The stage appears set for the Congress-NCP alliance following a "breakfast" invitation extended to Congress chief Sonia Gandhi by Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar. Gandhi called up Pawar to formalise the tie-up with the NCP before the Lok Sabha polls.

Pawar who has been facing difficult political choices because of the Shiv Sena's opposition to his entry into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was quick to mend the fence with Gandhi and invited her to breakfast tomorrow. Congress sources say Gandhi will go to Pawar's residence.

Obviously, the political bonhomie between Gandhi and Pawar indicates that the NCP chief will give up the issue of "Gandhi's foreign origin" and also tag along the "anti-BJPism" campaign of the Congress.

What assumes significance is the fact that it will lead to a vertical split in the NCP because the faction headed by PA Sangma is averse to any alliance with the Congress.

"This will go against the basic issues on the basis of which the NCP was formed," Sangma is learnt to have told his party colleagues.

Sangma with his influence in Meghalaya is being considered an "asset" by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is planning to expand its base in the north eastern states to acquire the characteristics of a true nationalist party.

Sources in the Congress, however, feel Pawar has realised his limitations in the recent past and will confine himself to the Maharashtra politics.

Given the party's dismal performance in all other states, Pawar is facing the risk of losing his image of the "Maratha satrap" in the present political scenario.

Though he tried to gain entry into the NDA, his efforts were spurned by the Shiv Sena, an ally which had ideological affinity with the BJP.

The question is: what will be the brand differentiation between Pawar's party and the Congress if he drops the issue of Gandhi's foreign origins? The alliance between the Congress and the NCP, minus the ideological issue of Gandhi's foreign-ness is just a step short of merger of the two parties.

Currently, Pawar is supporting the Congress government in Maharashtra. With 67 MLAs, his party is vulnerable to being poached upon by the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Congress.

A few NCP legislators are ministers and therefore will stay in the NCP. But other legislators can be broken away. To pre-empt this, Pawar might consider an early Assembly elections, burning his boats.

But in doing a deal with the Congress now, Pawar will be foreclosing his options that may arise in the event of a BJP-led minority government at the Centre.