Sonia yet to make up her mind on Sayeed's removal

With only a month remaining for likely change of guard in Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress leadership's silence indicates that the party is still busy assessing the possible impact that Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's continuation as chief minister may have on the party's long-term prospects in the state as well as in the country.

According to a power-sharing agreement between the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress in November 2002, the PDP is to lead the coalition government for the first three years and the Congress the next three.

The frequency of Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's visit to Srinagar has increased. Azad has been conducting himself in a politically symbolic manner, which political observers read as an indication of he being in the race for the top job in the state.

Azad chose to convene a meeting of a parliamentary committee on September 22 in Srinagar. Interestingly, Azad also met National Conference chief Omar Abdullah after Farooq Abdullah offered his party's support to the Congress.

Despite attempts by some senior Congress leaders to put the debate over change of guard to rest, it refuses to die. Recently in Jammu, Azad and Ambika Soni, political adviser to Sonia Gandhi, clarified that the Congress would adhere to the power-sharing agreement.

Congress leaders argue that the next chief minister should be from the Jammu region as the party's mandate mainly comes from that region.

The whole exercise of this impact assessment also carries the baggage of having transformed Sayeed into the "deliverer" and an "indispensable" entity in the state

"The dilemma with its accompanying debate is not only about the frills of peace process between India and Pakistan but also on whether the change of guard can enhance or dent Congress long-term prospects," said a senior political analyst.

But the whole exercise of this impact assessment also carries the baggage of having transformed Sayeed as the 'deliverer' and an 'indispensable' entity in the state.

Political pundits see the Congress party's dilemma (read silence) also exemplified by the post BJP ascendancy era in the country where Hindutva of a certain kind acquired currency across the national political parties - Congress included. The party, it seems, does not mind taking its own time in completely figuring out this Catch 22 situation.

Although it will be the Congress president Sonia Gandhi who will have the last word on whether or not Sayeed should continue in office beyond the three year term ending this November, chief minister Sayeed must be a happy man for more than one reason.

Whether power shift happens or not Sayeed's contentment must be lying in the fact that at least a debate has been generated despite an agreement on the sharing of power between his PDP and the Congress.