Special package for Andhra: Chandrababu Naidu's game plan a repeat of 2004

TDP's threat, KCR's attack on the BJP, and why 2019 could see a repeat of 2004 in the undivided Andhra Pradesh

The more things change, it seems, the more they stay the same. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has threatened to snap its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre, and its two ministers are reportedly set to quit the Narendra Modi government.

N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP, the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh, is upset that the Modi government has failed to fulfil its promises of a special package for the state.

In neighbouring Telangana, Chief Minister K Chandresekhar Rao, who leads the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), has spoken of the BJP as the main challenger. This looks like a volte-face from his four years earlier, when Rao would not tire of praising the PM.

The Andhra Pradesh and Telangana Assembly polls are scheduled to take place along with the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Both Naidu and Rao face anti-incumbency but now hope to blame this on the BJP and Modi government at the Centre.

While Rao faces a resurgent Congress in Telangana, Naidu in Andhra Pradesh is faced with Y S Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress, as well as the Congress party.

A lesson in contemporary history should illustrate the importance of Andhra Pradesh in national politics, and would also better explain the nervousness of both Naidu and Rao.

In 2004, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government had failed to get re-elected. Electorally, there were two principal reasons: The BJP’s seat tally in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections had dwindled in several states; and particularly its poor show in Uttar Pradesh.

Of UP’s 80 seats, the BJP won a mere 10 and failed to emerge the single-largest party nationally. That honour went to the Congress, but only by a whisker. To BJP’s 138-seats, the Congress won 145.

Andhra Pradesh contributed significantly to the Congress’ success. The party won 29 of the then undivided Andhra’s 42 Lok Sabha seats. This shored up its numbers from the 114 it had won in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections to 145 in 2004.

In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the TDP, an ally of the Vajpayee government, had won 29 of the 42 seats. The BJP had a handsome tally of 7 in Andhra Pradesh in that election. The Congress was reduced to 5. The remaining one seat was won by the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM).

In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, TDP was reduced to five and BJP couldn’t win any seat in Andhra Pradesh. The TRS, an ally of the Congress then, won five. The Left parties, which had an electoral understanding with the Congress, won two and AIMIM held on to its one seat.

Naidu, continuing to support the Modi government, would reduce his party’s re-election chances. The Congress understands the opportunity. On Tuesday, Congress President Rahul Gandhi had joined the protests by his party’s Andhra unit at Jantar Mantar.

Naidu has had an interesting relationship with the BJP. His father-in-law, NT Rama Rao, was one of the founding fathers of the Opposition unity and federal front against the Congress party in the 1980s.

NTR, as he was called, held a conclave of Opposition chief ministers and leaders in Vijaywada in 1983. It was not only attended by the Left parties but also the BJP and the then Janata Party. Along with MG Ramachandran in Tamil Nadu, Ramakrishna Hegde in Karnataka and EK Nayanar in Kerala, NTR represented the anti-Congress bloc.

In 1989, NTR was the leading light in the formation of the National Front. The National Front, led by VP Singh, formed the government at the Centre. The Left and BJP supported that government from outside.

In 1996, Naidu was a key player in the formation of the United Front. However, in 1998, Naidu’s TDP became an ally of the BJP at the Centre and continued its association with that party until 2004.

But the upcoming elections could mean a repeat of 2004 for Naidu and Rao if they continue to support the BJP, with increasing anger among farmers and youth.