India's food security looks promising in the medium and long-term, as foodgrains production is projected to touch 260 million tonnes in the next two years and 295 million tonnes by 2020, according to a NCAER study sponsored by the government.
Depending on the pace of economic growth, the maximum foodgrains demand will be 220 million tonnes by 2012 and 250 million tonnes in the next decade, the study by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said.
Foodgrains demand stood at 207 million tonnes in 2008-09, the study said.
"In the optimistic scenario, the foodgrains production can touch up to 260 million tonnes by the end of the 11th plan and 295 million tonnes by the end of 2020. Looking at the demand and supply balances, the results suggest... India's food security looks promising by the end of 2020," it said.
The research body made its projection based on the assumption that the government would keep resorting to export control.
However, if exports were freely allowed, foodgrains shipments could exceed 60 million tonnes annually by 2020, exerting pressure on domestic supply and prices.
"With exports potentially exceeding 60 million tonnes by 2020, demand would exceed supply, benefitting farmers while straining domestic availability," the think-tank pointed out.
In the wake of global pressure on food prices, the government has been showing concern over India's food security.
Addressing the G B Pant Agriculture University at Pantnagar last week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had underscored the need for an increase in foodgrains production.
"Our agricultural production should increase at a rate fast enough to ensure food security for our growing population," he had said.
After registering record foodgrain production of 234 million tonnes in 2008-09, the country witnessed a drop in output in the last crop year to 218 million tonnes due to a severe drought and floods. The government has been battling very high food inflation of over 16 per cent.
NCAER said that foodgrains demand would grow to 216 million tonnes by 2012 and 241 million tonnes by 2020 if the economy grows at 8.9 per cent.
However, the study noted that, "if the economy spurs on 12 per cent per annum growth path, the demand for foodgrains by 2020 would be much less at 230 million tonnes because of the rapid diversification of the consumption basket from foodgrains to high value food items that would take place at a much higher per capita income."
At a six per cent economic growth rate, the demand would surpass 220 million tonnes by 2012 and 250 million tonnes by 2020-end, the report said.