As per the preliminary estimates, Gujarat's cane production is likely to hover around 10 million tonnes, while last year the production was recorded at 11-11.5 million tonnes, sources in the state sugar cooperative sector informed.
Moreover, area under sugarcane sowing has remained a tad lower against the last year, while the excess rainfall in growing regions has adversely affected crop prospects this year. Sugarcane harvest starts from October.
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"There could be a drop in the cane production to the tune of around 8-10 per cent from last year's 11.5 million tonnes. Cane does require water, but this year we have seen excess water than required, which is not good for the crop," said Mansinh Patel, chairman, Gujarat State Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.
As per the meteorological department data, Gujarat region has witnessed excess rains of 5 per cent during June to September period. Against the normal rainfall of 834 mm the state received rainfall of 874 mm, showing a +5 per cent departure from normal.
However, state government officials decline any adverse impact of excess rainfall on cane production. "We do not think there will be a drop in cane production. On the contrary, we believe that sugar recovery from cane will improve further from last year's 10.29 per cent," said an official of sugar directorate, government of Gujarat.
Farmers, however, claim that area under cane cultivation has also fallen over the past three years from 1,92,000 hectares of three-year average to around 1,85,000 hectares in 2012-13.
"Many farmers have shifted to alternate cash crops mainly because of the excess supply of cane. Some of them had to burn their crop in the past as they were unable to sell it at a remunerative price," said a head of one of the sugar cooperative mills in south Gujarat.
The procurement price has been fixed at Rs 2,800 per tonne of cane but most of the cooperative sugar mills pay much more than that. This year also the procurement prices are likely to remain high as it is believed to keep farmers interested in sugarcane cultivation.