The Hindutva effect: Buffalo slaughter falls and milk prices cool

Buffalo meat exports in both volume and value are down by a third since the Modi govt came to power in 2014

Call it the butterfly effect. Rather, the buffalo effect. Even better, the Hindutva effect. The crackdown on indiscriminate slaughter of bovines has led to a decline in buffalo slaughter and cara beef (or buffalo meat) exports since the Modi government assumed power in 2014. Interestingly, retail prices of milk in the country, which had risen by more than 50 per cent between 2009 and 2014, have increased at a much slower pace since. The fall in exports is a curious phenomenon, since cara beef exports from India are primarily controlled by a few large slaughterhouses that produce this meat in registered abattoirs. This trend seems to suggest that at least a part of India’s buffalo meat exports were being contributed by unauthorised abattoirs and that illegal slaughter of cattle might be on the decline. 

Between 2014, when the Modi government came to power, and December 2017, the value and volume of beef exports  have declined by as much as a third. In 2014-15, India was exporting 1.5 million tonnes of buffalo meat valued at $4.8 billion. In 2017-18, till December, buffalo meat exports were down to 1.1 million tonnes valued at $3.3 billion. During the erstwhile Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA-2) government, the value and volume of beef exports had risen almost three fold. (See Chart at the end).

The decline in buffalo meat exports can be explained by fewer of these animals being killed for meat in India. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of buffaloes slaughtered between 2015 to 2017 fell by almost a million. There is no information available publically on the number slaughtered during the first year of the Modi administration in 2014. During the erstwhile United Progressive Alliance (UPA-2) government, the number of buffaloes killed for meat had grown by almost 3.7 million.

The Modi government’s crackdown on illegal cattle slaughter seems to have impacted other aspects of the cattle ecosystem in the country, apart from stimulating cultural repercussions in a nation where beef consumption is restricted to certain social and religious groups. One of the visible high impact areas has been milk production, which has increased at a much rapid pace since the Modi government came to power. The apparent consequence is that milk prices have increased at a considerably slower pace. Under the Manmohan Singh government, milk production had risen by almost 10 per cent and milk prices (in Delhi) were up 53 per cent. Since 2014, milk output in India has increased at 13 per cent while milk prices have risen by 16 per cent as of January 2018. 

The decline in buffalo slaughter and the consequent fall in meat exports can partly be explained by the changing socio-cultural climate in India, which is also being buttressed by active legislation. While there have been instances of free roaming vigilantes intercepting cattle transporters and, in some cases, physically assaulting them, the government through a gazette notification issued on May 23, 2017, restricted the sale of cattle at animal markets for slaughter. The rules state that local bureaucrats of the area need to ensure people who get cattle to animal markets give an undertaking in writing that the livestock wouldn’t be sold for slaughter. Even cattle shelters that give animals for adoption need to sign an affidavit stating that the animals being given away will not wind up in abattoirs. This rule is currently under review by the government, after it became clear that restrictions on sale of cattle at animal markets may adversely impact rural livelihoods. Many Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled states, such as Haryana, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, had also introduced their own laws since 2015, placing restrictions and imposing penalties on people accused of trading in cattle for slaughter. All of this has made a significant dent in the informal cattle slaughter ecosystem in India. 

The Modi government’s efforts at reigning in illegal slaughter has been complemented by favourable global trade conditions especially in South East Asia, which should be good news for the handful of big export houses that control the beef export trade in India. According to a report by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), in December 2017, India entered the Indonesian beef market with a bang after gaining access in August 2016. Indian buffalo meat was allowed into Indonesia by the Joko Widodo administration in a bid to control spiraling beef prices in the country. India continues to control half of Vietnam’s beef market despite the Australians aggressively trying to dent India’s dominance. Meat & Livestock Australia further noted, “The Indian government’s decision to ban the slaughter of bulls and bullocks in late 2015, in states where this practice was originally accepted, is considered to have only marginally affected exports.” India’s exporters could also get a major boost once China allows Indian beef into its country, negotiations for which are currently underway between New Delhi and Beijing.  
 

But some others are not as optimistic about India’s dominance in the world global beef export market. A December 2017 report by the United States Department of Agriculture estimates that Brazil will soon catch up with India by October 2018. Between October 2017 to 2018, Brazil’s beef exports are expected to rise by almost four per cent, while India’s global buffalo meat exports will grow by just about one per cent. If the existing buffalo meat slaughter and export scenario is anything to go by, the American prediction will hit the bulls eye sooner than expected.