Third Front to decide Presidential poll outcome

The Third Front "" such as it is "" holds the aces in the election for the President of India scheduled in July next year.

Comprising parties which are not inclined to be counted as part of either the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), these parties, like the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav or the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati, are likely to be the most wooed by the national parties when the time comes to elect the President of India.

In terms of the votes represented in the electoral college that chooses the President, the UPA has, at present, 4,68,100 votes. The NDA has 3,69,856 votes.

However, the parties that are aligned neither to the NDA nor the UPA have between them 2,58,160 votes. As most of these parties are anti-Congress, it is reasonable to expect that they would vote with the Opposition.

In the current electoral college, the ruling UPA is just 98,000 votes ahead of the NDA. This situation is likely to change after the elections are held to the state Assemblies between now and June next year. Observers believe the balance of advantage will lie with the Opposition.

Though the Congress and its allies control a larger number of state governments, the value of the vote or every MLA (which is proportional to the population) is less than the votes of the NDA-held state governments, because the states governed by the latter are more populous, says a minister in the UPA government.

The largely notional Third Front will also nibble away at Congress votes. This comprises uncommitted parties like the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the National Conference, the Assam Gana Parishad and the Rashtriya Lok Dal.

For the record, all parties say the bets on the Presidential poll are off until the Assembly elections. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and half a dozen other states are to go to the polls between now and July next year.

However, top sources say the bargaining on who should be Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha has already begun between the Congress and the Left parties.

The latter wants the support of the former for the post of Deputy Chairman, in return for its support for President.

The person who is elected President next year will preside over the swearing-in of a new government after the 2009 General Elections. For this reason, this is a crucial post.