TN has grown amid scams, populism

Tamil Nadu polls are invariably about alliance arithmetic. It had appeared that the DMK-Congress alliance, ruling in the state for seven years, would end in a divorce over seat sharing. But, hard bargaining and drama resulted in compromises.

The Opposition AIADMK-led front is campaigning hard on the various unsavoury scams that are now associated with the DMK and its ruling family, prominently the telecom spectrum one, which has seen the jailing of a prominent figure from the party. With the Supreme Court-supervised probe reaching right into DMK supremo M Karunanidhi’s family, and mud flying all around, the party’s reputation among the urban class has gone to a low.

So much so that Karunanidhi and his son, Deputy Chief Minister M K Stalin have shifted out of their Chennai constituencies. On the other hand, there are Karunanidhi’s populist — and, hugely popular — schemes. For instance, all ration card holders (and, there’s no income bar on being entitled to one) get 20 kg rice per head every month at just Rs 1 a kg.

Continuing the freebie-splurging ways it had adopted for the 2006 Assembly elections, the DMK government has gone on to say the rice will now be given for free. Plus, a continuation of last time’s free colour TV sets for all card holders. There’s also a free insurance scheme that covers 10 per cent of the populace — a scheme that other states are looking to replicate.

These schemes have increased the state’s debt to Rs 1.75 lakh crore from Rs 80,000 crore a year before, say reports. More schemes are on the way, and the DMK’s rivals have rushed to show they will give far more. From pregnant women to college students, members of the hundreds of thousands of women self-help groups to the poor, senior citizens and farmers... there is something for everyone.

“Like we gave colour televisions and free gas stoves to women during the past five years, we promise that the women will be presented with wet grinders or mixies, whichever is their choice, if you elect us again,” said Karunanidhi while releasing his manifesto. Rival Jayalalithaa, head of the rival alliance, is no novice in this regard; her regimes, too, were marked by diverse populist schemes. She does have a reputation, though, of being ready to move on economic reforms and in being better at delivering on law and order.

If one were to look at numbers, Tamil Nadu has only been growing economically, regardless of whose regime it is. Per capita income has increased from Rs 39,692 in 2005-2006 to Rs 69,377 in 2009-2010.

The annual growth in Gross State Domestic Product is in double digits. Historically, Tamil Nadu has been famous for both, encouraging industry and pro-poor measures. This trend remains, no matter which party comes to power. The state attracted cumulative foreign direct investment of $5.7 billion between April 2000 and May 2010.

“I hope that before the end of current financial year, total investments attracted by offering structured package support (for industry) will touch Rs 60,000 crore,” said Stalin.

The big question is whether Karunanidhi would be ousted after the telecom scams or be rescued by his populist schemes. Tomorrow’s voting would provide the answer.