Trouble ahead for Chinmayanand in Jaunpur

MANDATE 2004

As the air-conditioned Land Cruiser of Minister Of State for Home Swami Chinmayanand bounces down the dusty tracks of rural Jaunpur, he launches on a long monologue about his role in brokering peace with the Bodo and Naga insurgents in the Northeast.

"Look at my work at the national level and my contribution in the brokering of peace in all troubled areas," says Chinmayanand.

However, in his enthusiasm to solve bigger national problems, Chinmayanand seems to have forgotten his constituency.

"He has done nothing for Jaunpur," declares a disgruntled villager.

In fact, Chinmayanand is aware of his vulnerable position in Jaunpur. Even BJP sources admit that he made desperate attempts to get his constituency shifted from Jaunpur to Varanasi or Ghaziabad.

In fact, Chinmayanand has been successful a majority of the times that he has changed his constituency. He contested from Budaun in 1991, Shahjehanpur in 1996, Machlishahar in 1998 and Jaunpur in 1999. But the BJP's central leadership did not allow Chinmayanad to change his seat this time.

That the swami was disinterested in development work in his constituency is evident from the poor condition of the roads and other infrastructural facilities.

As the elections draw closer, Chinmayanand appears to be on a sticky wicket. So his loyalists, forgetting his sanyasi background, are now advertising the fact that he is a Rajput by caste.

This is a clear attempt to mobilise Rajput voters, who form a sizeable chunk of the votebank here. In a desperate move to win over caste loyalties, Union Agriculture Minister Rajnath Singh also campaigned in certain pockets dominated by Thakurs.

But all these efforts appear to be going waste as Dhananjay Singh, another powerful Rajput candidate fielded by Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janashakti Party, has the backing of the Congress.

Singh, with his Robin Hood image among the Rajputs here, draws more crowds than the saffron-clad swami.

What appears to have made a further dent in the BJP's stronghold is the strange phenomenon of the drifting away of Brahmins from the swami.

Baba Dubey, a BSP candidate, has emerged as a powerful rallying point for local Brahmins, who do not seem inclined to vote for the Rajput swami.

In numerical terms, the dominance of Brahmins in the constituency is an established fact. The BSP candidate has got a shot in the arm following a substantial section of Muslims deciding to extend support to the BSP.

By all indications, the behaviour of the Muslim electorate will signify a change in the their political approach in Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party candidate Parasnath Yadav, a powerful minister in the Mulayam Singh Yadav government, is no longer a favourite of the minority community.

"He is very rude to certain Muslim leaders," residents of Muslim-dominated areas of the city confirm. Obviously, Yadav has lost the formidable Muslim-Yadav votebank and is confined to only the Yadav vote bank.

In the emerging political equations, Chinmayanand is pinning his hopes on the personal charm of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

"This is a city where Vajpayee has travelled a lot and knows every nook and corner," Chinmayanand said while campaigning in the area.

Apparently, Chinmayanand will using every trick in the trade to ensure is election. Having lost his credibility among sadhus of the VHP after his deft moves to create confusion on the Ram temple issue, Chinmayanand will be a facing serious problems even within the Sangh Parivar too.