The possibility has arisen because of the widening rift between the Congress and the BSP and the possibility of the former supporting the UF for the formation of the government.
Mulayam Singhs steadfast refusal to concede even an inch to the BSP-Congress alliance on the candidature of Mayawati, and his call to the cadre that they should be prepared to face elections in the next six or seven months, showed that he will do anything to ensure that the BSP-Congress does not come to power.
The United Front itself is convinced that the BSP-Congress is not to be supported from outside. It has to be a coalition government.
The UF may have prevailed upon Mulayam Singh to accept Mayawati as the Chief Minister, with the UF getting the deputy chief ministers post. But the refusal of the BSP leaders to concede to the demand for a coalition has ensured that there is no pressure on Mulayam Singh to make concessions.
There has been a consistently pro-Mulayam faction within the Congress. These leaders are in Delhi at the moment. There is every possibility that the Congress will be won over, raising the combinations tally to 167. The Samajwadi leaders told Business Standard that the party has managed to get the support of 185 MLAs. The ministry, they said, will be headed by Mulayam Singh.
They point out that Governor Romesh Bhandari has already made it clear that he is not enamoured by the largest party status of the BJP. He prefers stability. In other words, is it is not the BJP, but the UF-Congress combine, which is the largest party in this scenario, who will get the invitation. This will take care of the BJP argument.
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But there are some snags In this neatly laid out picture. Firstly, not everyone in the UF would like Mulayam Singh to head the ministry, since he is already the defence minister.
Although the Samajwadi leadership deny it, Ram Naresh Yadav, the Chief Minister of the state in the Janta Party government in 1977, is being increasingly mentioned as a possible candidate. Yadav has won the election from Azamagarh and is now a member of the Congress party. He has been summoned to Delhi. He reached there yesterday.
MLAs of the Ajit-Tikait group, the Bhartiya Kamgar Kissan Party, are unanimous that neither Mulayam Singh nor Mayawati should become the Chief Minister. They prefer Ram Naresh Yadav. This has the merit of taking care of the dissent among the Congressmen as well, since Mulayams induction as Chief Minister may not be liked all Congressmen.
People like Lokapati Tripathi may find themselves difficult to follow his lead and might think of defection, an intention he has denied vehemently till now.
The BSP MLAs are still under protective custody, despite the declaration that the BSP is prepared to sit in the opposition.
For now Mulayam Singh is in the lead. This will become evident once a formal break between the Congress and BSP takes place.