UP by-polls spell trouble for BJP

Party polled less than 16% of votes in state

Early alarms have begun to sound for the Bharatiya Janata Party following the results of 16 Assembly by-elections. Although the results were along the expected lines in Haryana, Kerala and Karnataka, it is Uttar Pradesh that should most worry the party.

BJP workers appeared dumbfounded after detailed results indicated that the party lost its deposit in three out of four Assembly by-elections in UP. This means the party got less than 16 per cent of the total vote. Worse, except for Varanasi North where the BJP candidate is in the second place, in the other three, the BJP is at number four with the Congress right behind.

What is worrying managers is that even in a seat that was earlier held by the NDA (Janata Dal United), it is the Samajwadi Party that has walked away with the laurels. Although traditionally, by-elections tend to favour the party in government, the results make it clear that unless the BJP goes in for a radical makeover, it is UP which is going to let it down again.

In the Allahabad West constituency, which happens to be in the constituency of former BJP President Murali Manohar Joshi, sitting Bahujan Samaj Party MLA Raju Pal was murdered after having received several death threats. His widow of a few months, Puja Pal contested the election as a BSP nominee.

It is Allahabad's worst-kept secret that SP candidate Ashraf had threatened Pal on several occasions. Ashraf has won the election by a margin of nearly 20,000 votes, not a small margin by any count in an Assembly election. What should worry the BJP is that even in this surcharged atmosphere, it has managed to poll just 1410 votes. The Congress has fared worse, totalling just 660 votes.

Even worse is the story of the Kheragarh Assembly constituency that was held by the BJP. The seat fell vacant because of the death of Ramesh Kant Lavania of the BJP. At that time"" the 2002 Assembly election"" Lavania had got 28.3 per cent of the vote.

The slide was evident in the Lok Sabha election when SP candidate Ramjilal Suman won the seat and in the Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP's vote share fell to 25 per cent. But, in the by-election caused by Lavania's death, the party figures fourth on the list with a Rashtriya Lok Dal candidate having won the contest. The party has got just 12,000 votes.

In the Hainsarbazar Reserved constituency, the JD(U) had won but the candidate resigned, joined the SP and contested the Lok Sabha election. So, technically, the seat was with the NDA. Here, too, the BJP has fared miserably in the by-election at the third spot, winning 12,000 votes, nearly 40,000 votes below the candidate who got the second place. The winner, Algu Prasad from the SP, defeated his BSP rival by a margin of just 90 votes.

In Varanasi, despite being one of its core constituencies, the BJP has managed the second place, but barely. Here, too, its vote share has been eroding steadily when compared with Lok Sabha results.

All this is prompting the BJP to carry out an internal evaluation. The party is now pushing its managers to figure out how it will ever be able to recover ground in the most crucial state.

Meanwhile, for the Congress the news is not all good despite its successes in Goa and Haryana. For 10 Janpath, it is Kerala that spells trouble.

In the first elections since veteran K Karunakarn broke away from the party, it lost badly to the Left Democratic Front in the Koothuparamba and Azhikode. It marked the total collapse of the Congress-led United Democratic Front, CPI-M state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan said today.

Alluding to the support extended to the LDF by the National Congress (Indira) launched by Karunakaran, Vijayan said the LDF was grateful to all those who had contributed to the victory of its candidates with record margins in the Koothuparamba and Azhikode segments.

Asked if he was referring to the NCI, the CPI-M leader said the LDF had received support from all sections other than the RSS-BJP.

On whether his party had plans to strike an alliance with the NCI, Vijayan said the CPI-M state committee was yet to discuss and formulate the party's approach towards the new outfit.

It was apparent from the by-elections that the Congress had collapsed completely after the split as that party could not even mobilise booth agents during the polls, he said.