It was only four months back that the Congress(T) fought the BJP in the hills and wrested two seats out of four from it. Tiwari himself won, with record majority. He had led with sizeable majority in the four Vidhan Sabha constituencies and trailed only in the Baheri Vidhan Sabha which lies outside the hills. In Kashipur, BJP was relegated to the third position, in Khatima to fourth, in Nainital to third and in Haldwani second.
This happened because there was a strong sympathy wave in favour of Tewary. People from all parties voted for him. They realised that they had made a mistake in not electing him to the Lok Sabha, where he had chances of becoming a senior minister, if not the Prime Minister.
Somewhere in the back of their minds, the voters also had the idea that if he had been in power then the atrocities on the people of Uttarakhand would not have happened. besides he was a senior leader from the area and deserved to win. All these factors together created a wave in favour of Tiwari, breaking caste and political barriers. Many from the BJP, too, voted for Tiwari.
But once Tiwari chose to join the United Front, the support came crashing down. Although Tiwari made belated efforts by bringing Deve Gowda to the region, and tried to get sanctions for a medical college in the region, the people of Uttarakhand, and Nainital in particular, have not pardoned him for accepting the leadership of Mulayam Singh. The announcement of the state of Uttarakhand by the Prime Minister has helped Tiwari somewhat, but this constitutes only 20 per cent of the support which he had.
Another factor which is likely to help the BJP is the split in the Congress, although in most places the Congress(T) has retained the Congress following.
In some constituencies the split in the Congress vote is going to effect the outcome, like in Didihaat, Pithoragarh, Almora, Bageshwar and Ranikhet.
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The fight in Uttarakhand used to be between the Congress and the BJP. But the Congress(T), even with the support of Tiwari, will find it difficult to win. The region is so totally against the SP.
The Congress does not command much following in the area. However, it could change with the SC of the hills too switching their loyalty to the BSP. The BSP vote is transferable to the Congress but not the other way round.
But contrary to common impression, the BSP is likely to make a major impression in the terai region. The UF is busy calculating the votes which the BSP may garner. This could cause a major upset in the three terai constituencies of Haldwani, Khatima and Kashipur, where large number of terai Sikhs are likely to vote for the party. If the BSP is able to swing more Muslims votes, it could deal a major blow to the UF and the BJP.
Another important factor would be the choice of candidates. A good candidate from any outfit can corner a large share of the floating votes and maybe even the lower level support base of other parties. This UF has a chance here as they have made a dood beginning by choosing Mahendra Pal Singh of the Janata Dal as their candidate from Haldwani. He is highly respected and well regarded among the paharis. His candidature has turned the Haldwani contest triangular, with the UF having an edge over the BJP.
But this may work only in one or two seats.
A peculiarity of elections in the hills would be that the Uttarakhand bogey will not be raised by any political party. A new controversy has arisen