This is the scenario which is emerging in the state where no two parties are able to combine in a manner that they cross the criteria set by the Governor, Romesh Bhandari. George Fernandes yesterday broke the monotonous chorus from the BJP camp that they will be invited and will form the government. He, after demanding changing the Governor and accusing Bhandari of being involved in the St Kiss case, said that a BJP-BSP-Samata combination should be formed in Uttar Pradesh and the chief ministership should be by rotation.
This suggestion has the merit of taking care of the objections of Kalyan Singh camp and does open the way for the BJP to again try for an alliance with the BSP.
There has been a section within the BJP, including Atal Behari Vajpayee, which has been advocating support for the BSP. But they had to change their stance over stiff objections by Kalyan Singh.
However once the Kalyan Singh line of forming a BJP government does not work, as it is unlikely to, since as yet a large number of Congress MLAs who are keen to support the BJP are not prepared to break off from their parent body, then the possibility of the alliance with the BSP line coming back cannot be ruled out. George seems to have set the ball rolling.
This is also an indirect admission that the BJP on its own may not be able to get an invitation, without which it will not be able to prove its majority. But the snag is that the BSP may not deviate from its stand.
Kanshi Ram, at the last count, had made it clear that the BSP taking support from the BJP will damage his partys long term interest and will immensely strengthen the Samajwadi party in the state. The 12 Muslim MLAs in the BSP have already made it clear to Ram that they will not be with the party in case it chooses to side with the BJP.
Therefore the chances of the BJP and BSP alliance coming alive again should be considered bleak. Nevertheless, a new beginning is being attempted.
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The number of Congress MLAs who are planning to side with the BJP is not clear yet. Some estimates put it at less then 11. These are MLAs who are prepared to break off from the parent body. About 21 of them will side with the BJP if they are called to form the government and only on the floor.
Since the BJP is unlikely to be called, the Vidhan Sabha is moving towards dissolution, without even being convened.