"Nuclear deal is not the issue. It is the timing of the elections everybody is thinking about," a CPI(M) leader told Business Standard. This remark summed up all the events in Delhi today, as politics inched inexorably close to a General Election at least three months ahead of schedule.
All eyes are now set on the two possible meetings in the Congress camp. Sonia Gandhi is likely to convene a meeting of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) in the next few days, followed by a meeting with the UPA. According to Congress sources, the CWC is likely to authorise the prime minister to take the final call on the nuclear deal. This will effectively mean that the
Congress will go ahead despite Left's opposition to the deal.
Meanwhile, Congress managers have been engaged to hold informal conversations with the key allies. If leaders like Lalu Prasad, Sharad Pawar, K Karunanidhi agree with the Congress on the issue of early elections, Sonia Gandhi will quickly call a meeting of the UPA to showcase its resolve to go ahead with the deal.
The Congress camp is toying with different options on how to go ahead with the nuclear deal but avoid the immediate fall of the government. It is trying to find out if the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the 45-member group of nations that controls the supply of uranium, can be approached on the basis of the draft IAEA safeguards agreement. This will not only save crucial time in clinching the deal but also avoid going to the IAEA board of governors for the time being. After the informal negotiations are completed in the next few months, the government will go for the formal approvals at the cost of Left's withdrawal of support.
Some leaders are also suggesting that the monsoon session of Parliament be delayed. Instead of scheduling the session in the last week of July, a truncated session can begin in August. "After the session, the government can go for the deal and then even if Left withdraws support, there will not be any compulsion to convene another Parliament session within the next six months," said a minister. This plan, of course, is based on the hope that the Left will not challenge the government to a floor test in Parliament.