UPA's social agenda: Too much too late?

Pilot direct cash benefits scheme has reached just 10% of test population 8 months after launch

Two of UPA II’s biggest election planks – the Food Security Bill & the direct cash transfers mechanism may not necessarily end up becoming electoral game-changers. Both initiatives, pet projects of Congress President Sonia Gandhi have
 

A) been introduced too late and too close to the polls 
 

& 
 

B) are bogged down by obstacles that are delaying implementation on the ground, which could dilute their voter impact. 
 

The farm debt waiver  & the National Rural Employment Guarentee Scheme, often seen as UPA’s successful past attempts at vote garnering in the 2009 General Elections, were announced way ahead of the polls - 1 & 4 years respectively. But the new legislations – both on direct cash benefits & food security are running tight schedules on execution. 
 

The Times of India citing official data reports, that the pilot direct cash benefits scheme has reached just 10% of test population 8 months after it was formulated. 
 

A lot of the fears that skeptics had about back-end infrastructure to enable direct cash transfers scheme not being ready seems to be vindicated by this data. The TOI report says “only half the population identified for 25 schemes in 121 districts, where pilots are being run, had bank accounts. While a quarter had both bank accounts and Aadhaar, there were less than 10% who had them linked.” It further adds that “In 242 of the 650 districts, penetration varies between zero and 10% and the Unique Identification Authority of India has conceded that it will take up to 27 months to issue Aadhaar. Only 160 districts have Aadhaar coverage of over 50%.”
 

Then, cases like a particular pilot on cash for kerosene in Rajasthan highlights how transfers, (currently not indexed to inflation) are proving insufficient for families. And given that, high prices are an election hot potato one wonders whether such trials could actually prove detrimental. 
 

As far as the food bill is concerned, rollout is expected to take at least 6 to 9  months, with the state governments yet to identify intended beneficiaries. And aside of the timing, political pundits are also skeptical of how much credit the Congress will exclusively be able to claim over such a program. Many states like Chattisgarh, already running their own food entitlement schemes will now be able to pass on part of their food subsidy burden to the centre because of increased allocations & use the savings made here to further enhance their state doles. That could corner the Congress’s attempts at gaining political mileage. 
 

Reports also suggest that poorer states like UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan & MP, not ruled by the Congress would see allocations hike substantially under the new formula devised by the Planning Commission, while Congress ruled states could only see marginal hikes.  Opposition states are not going to easily let the Congress claim credit for these allotments. Some like Uttar Pradesh are in fact obstinate on delaying the launch further, and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has openly stated that they are not in a hurry to implement the Centre’s program. 
 

Furthermore as Sreenivasan Jain writes in his September 3rd column in the Business Standard, grain allotment to the poorest of poor will actually come down under the food law as “under the Bill's 5 kg-per-person formula, calculated on the basis of an average of 4.5 members per family, each below poverty line (BPL) family will get an average of about 20 kg - 15 kg less than earlier.” The government palpably, hasn’t highlighted this bit of information, tom-toming only about increased coverage & not reduced entitlements. But people will eventually figure out. 
 

The Congress of course, after scurrying through these proposals is expected to build a high octane pitch on its various Aam Aadmi pledges. But will a pompous bid to showcase over-ambitious targets, hide the critical shortcomings in implementation?