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US analysts' view on US downgrade by S&P

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Press Trust of India New York
Last Updated : Jan 20 2013 | 11:53 PM IST

The United States lost its top-notch AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor's on Friday, in a dramatic reversal of fortune for the world's largest economy.

S&P cut the long-term US credit rating by one notch to AA+ on concerns about growing budget deficits.

COMMENTS:

GREG SALVAGGIO SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, TEMPUS CONSULTING, WASHINGTON DC

"I really find it quite amazing that a credit agency that could rate mortgage-backed securities AAA has decided to downgrade the US government.

"I think the forecast overstated by between $2-3 trillion, the Treasury alerted them of the fact and they decided to go ahead with the downgrade anyway.

In my job as an analyst, if my forecast were off by 2 million, or 200 million let alone 2 trillion it would make it incredibly hard to say to my peers that my analysis was sound.

"I find it to be incredibly troubling from a ratings agency with a very terrible history in the last three years of its ability to quantify risk.

"I'm a little bit fired up about it. "What Moody's and Fitch have really quietly agreed to do is say, 'We are going to wait and see what the commission comes up with before a downgrade,' but S&P went ahead and did it anyway with numbers that were wrong.

"Traders put some credibility into the possibility of this downgrade. If you look at government bonds today, they closed down. Now we have to take a step back from our US perspective, from an American pride perspective. Where else are you going to put your money right now? Europe is a mess....

I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to Swedish bonds, which is one of two countries that is still AAA.

DAVID MEGER, VICE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR OF METALS TRADING WITH VISION FINANCIAL MARKETS IN CHICAGO

"One would expect the S&P downgrade to positively impact safe haven assets like gold, which continues to lead the safe-haven asset class. But, because the move was widely expected, we probably won't see a huge move on this news.

"The industrial metals, like copper, may get hit from the move, because it will add to the already weak economic picture that sent it down today. Silver has been a laggard, and it has an industrial component, so it may not be able to benefit as much as gold.

"This will put even closer scrutiny on Bernanke and the Fed this week to see if they will come up with QE3 or some type of stimulus plan."

DEAN POPPLEWELL, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST AT OANDA IN TORONTO

"No one expected them to do it. They made sure Monday will not be boring! The dollar's woes will continue. Markets will apply further pressure on the dollar and equities. Investors

will want to own the front end of the US curve and sell 10s and bonds. The flight to quality trade will be extended."

BORIS SCHLOSSBERG, DIRECTOR OF CURRENCY RESEARCH AT GFT, NEW YORK

"It's probably going to put a little bit more stress on the dollar when we open in Asia on Sunday night. It's the first time in history that the S&P has downgraded the United States.

Even though most of the investors are not required to hold a triple-A rating, there' still a significant minority that may decide to liquidate at least some part of their US holdings

now that the downgrade is in effect. At least initially, the impact on the market will be negative because there will some forced liquidation of US assets. I don't think this is an unexpected move."

(About the timing of downgrade)

"They want the market to absorb the news over the weekend. It will mitigate the shock of the announcement. (Still), it may cause a pretty steep sell-off in Asia when we open as the market considers the significance of the news."

PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK

"It's not totally unexpected. It's just the suddenness of the move and according to the S&P logic, it's justified. I don't know that it's unanticipated by the markets. There might be a mild reaction, but it won't be very pronounced. The timing is a little accelerated but it's no surprise. The S&P was looking for a longer term fiscal adjustment and that has not materialised and is unlikely to materialize before the election."

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First Published: Aug 06 2011 | 2:35 PM IST

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