The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its estimate of India's sugar production in the ongoing 2010-11 sugar year slightly upward to 24 million tonne (MT), but this is still lower than the government's forecast of 24.5 MT.
Earlier, the USDA had pegged the country's sugar production at 23.6 million tonne during the ongoing 2010-11 sugar year (October-September).
The USDA said in its latest report that it has revised India's sugar production forecast to 24 MT from its previous estimate after taking into account higher cane output of 340.5 million tonne in the 2010-11 sugar year.
Production in top two sugar-producing states -- Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh -- is expected to be 9.3 MT tonne and 6.2 MT, respectively, this year, it said.
Higher sugar production is expected particularly in central and southern India, as output in these regions is likely to be better following well-distributed monsoon rains and favourable weather conditions, it said.
Also, the recent weakening of gur prices vis-a-vis sugar and relatively modest cane prices paid by sugar mills limited the diversion of sugarcane for the production of gur during peak the crushing season, it added.
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According to the USDA, Indian mills are estimated to have produced 16.3 MT of sugar till February this sugar year, as compared to 13.7 MT in the year-ago period.
With expected surplus sugar production in 2010-11, the report observed that India may export around 8,00,000 tonne of sugar in the current sugar year. Already, the government has approved the export of 5,00,000 tonne of sugar under Open General Licences (OGL).
It had also allowed mills to meet their export obligation of around one million tonne under the Advance Licence Scheme (ALS). India is the world's second-biggest sugar producer, but the largest consumer of the sweetener.
Estimating higher sugar production for India in the 2011-12 sugar year at 25.5 million tonne, the USDA said that sugar output is likely to gain strongly in the coming sugar year as production is on an upswing this year after consecutive years of decline.