Uttar Pradesh may upset all calculations

MANDATE 2004

Even as 32 Lok Sabha seats of the eastern UP go to polls on Monday, there are all indications that the existing political equations in the country's largest state may turn topsy turvy when the results comes on May 13.

The last-ditch campaign by Congress's star campaigners - Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra- has certainly swayed undecided voters who form a crucial chunk of the electorate. By all account, the Lok Sabha election in 2004 is turning out to be a unique electoral experiment with caste, religion, criminalisation and economics in the state.

For the first time , no political party except Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could claim to have retained its traditional support base.

Even BJP leaders admit that the phenomenon of drifting away of traditional voters is not confined to one region but all over the state. For instance, the BJP has alienated a substantial chunk of Brahmin, Rajput, Bania and Kayastha voters.

What appears to be more striking is ther fact that the tactical voting largely attributed to Muslims would characterize the electorate's conduct this time.

This implies that Brahmins might opt for a powerful Brahmin candidate irrespective of his or her political affiliations. In Varanasi, Brahmins were keen to go lock, stock and barrel with Congress candidate Rajesh Mishra who has emerged as a powerful contender to BJP candidate Shankar Prasad Jaiswal.

Similarly, the advertisements put up by an outfit claiming to be representative body of Rajputs in newspapers appeal to voters to consolidate Kshatriyas in order to gain a larger number of seats.

The advertisements are obviously inserted with the intention of weaning away Rajputs from the BJP to Amar Singh's Samajwadi Party. This is further bolstered by the caste identity worn on the sleeves by SP leaders like Amar Singh who chooses to prefix "Thakur" before his name.

But Brahmins and Rajputs are not the only caste identities which are asserting politically. Only last week, a group of individuals gathered in the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) and talked about consolidating Bhumihars, a numerically inferior caste with a few pockets of influence in eastern UP.

This was seen as a tactical move by Samajwadi Party candidate Anjana Prakash to win over Bhumihars by invoking her identity with the caste of her birth. Prakash was confident of winning over Yadavs and Muslims as they form the traditional support base of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

What appears to have turned the electoral calculations awry is the emergence of smaller parties representing OBCs.

In many constituencies of eastern UP and central region, the emergence of Sonelal Patel's Apna Dal has weaned away Kurmis from the Hindutva fold despite Herculean efforts by a BJP Kurmi leader Om Prakash Singh to retain the support of people from his caste.

In Machlishahar and Azamgarh, even Yadavs who ordinarily repose unflinching faith in Mulayam Singh Yadav have been pitching for two powerful Yadav brothers of the BSP- Ramakant Yadav and Umakant Yadav.

That Muslims have also drifted away from the Samajwadi Party (SP) and are pitching for a non-BJP Muslim candidate irrespective of political affiliations is an indication of the fact that the political behaviour of disparate groups on caste and religion lines will be determined by their self-interests.

Quite clearly, this would be reflected in the voting pattern as major caste groups and the minority would not follow the past trend.

While the prevailing confusion among traditional voters of the BJP and the SP prevail, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is going steady by retaining its traditional support base of Dalits who constitute 22 percent of the electorate in all 80 constituencies.

Though the BSP's voters are not so articulate, they seem to be decisive when it comes to casting their votes. That Mayawati has fielded maximum number of muslim candidates in UP has also given the BSP a cutting edge to win over the minority and various caste groups.