Vajpayee to start campaign today

Vajpayee will visit Udaipur and Bikaner tomorrow, thus covering the northern and the southern tips of Rajasthan.

Despite the prime minister's efforts, Sangh Parivar sources said the situation for the BJP could be best described as shaky in a state which has a seen a recent change of guard in the BJP's local unit.

The change of leadership in Rajasthan has not been smooth for the party. Although there is no overt tension between present state President Vasundhara Raje and former Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, the latter's followers are sensitive to the structure of patronage and conscious that Raje might not follow the same system. They are, therefore, not averse to flexing muscle to show Raje her place.

These problems did not arise earlier as Shekhawat had long experience in dealing with the management of caste and community equations, sometimes seeking the help of extra-BJP friends to neutralise political contradictions in his own party.

Raje however still has much to learn. The Jats, the largest and the most influential caste group in Rajasthan, for instance are tilting in favour of Ashok Gehlot and are not taken in by the propaganda that Raje is a Jatni by virtue of her marriage to the Jhalawar royal family. The marriage has since broken up and her claims to her husband's caste are seen as spurious.

The other challenge to the Jat vote is represented by Haryana Chief Minister O P Chautala, whose party, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), has set up candidates in several jat-dominated constituencies in the Shekhawati, Bharatpur and Sawai Madhopur regions.

A Jat-Rajput tussle has been the dominating feature of Rajasthan politics and the recent defection of Raja Vishwendra Singh of Bharatpur was seen as part of this tussle.

In the final analysis, a three-way division of Jat votes - between the BJP, the Congress and the INLD, might go in favour of the BJP. However, it could also be counterproductive in some constituencies.

There are some regions in Rajasthan where the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been powerful. The Sangh is seeking its own candidates in these regions, regardless of their winnability. This has also created friction between the RSS and the BJP.

Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has managed, in a last-mile effort, to swing opinion in favour of his management of the drought. His biggest asset is the capacity to take all groups along without ruffling feathers in a low key style.

Therefore, rebel elements in the Congress are expected to show their protest by inactivity rather than openly spoining the changces of official candidates, unlike in the BJP.

Vajpayee, who returned from a three-nation tour last night, discussed the party's poll preparations at a high-level meeting this morning.

The meeting was attended by party president m venkaiah naidu, union ministers jaswant singh and ravi shanker prasad, who is in charge of rajasthan, and senior party leaders pramod mahajan and v k malhotra.

Briefing reporters after the 90-minute meeting, naidu said the leaders gave a feedback to the prime minister and expressed confidence about the party's success in delhi,rajasthan, madhya pradesh and chhatisgarh, besides making inroads in mizoram.

He said most of the rebel candidates have withdrawn their nominations and reiterated their support to the party.

Naidu said besides focus on alleged "failure" of the four congress-ruled state governments, bjp electioneering would veer around "good governance and development" under the nda government at the centre.