For over 1400 candidates who contested in the twin polls to the assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Orissa, it is now a long and anxious wait for the results. While the two phase elections in the state got over on April 23, the counting is scheduled three weeks away on May 16.
Even as the candidates, back from their hectic electioneering, keep themselves busy in assessing their winning chances during this cooling off period, the pattern of voters’ turnout in the state gives little away to help them in psephological indulgence.
The overall voters’ turnout in just concluded polls in Orissa is marginally higher than the figures of previous elections. The state recorded 66.33 per cent turnout this time compared to 65.9 per cent in 2004.
So does it mean status quo ? The ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) feels so, though its main rivals, the BJP and the Congress do not agree. “Sixty six per cent turnout is normal for Orissa. It is unlike 1977 or 1990 when higher polling was recorded as people came out in large numbers to vote out a government”, says Damodar Rout, secretary general of BJD.
He reasoned that a high turnout generally goes against the incumbent government as people, upset with the manner of running of the government, turn up in large numbers at the polling booths to vent their anger. “So a normal turnout will go in favour of the establishment and in this case BJD”, he observed.
He, however, added that it may not be a landslide victory for the BJD, for different factors like choice of candidates is some places and division of non-Congress votes following break up alliance with BJP, still the party riding on the popularity of Naveen Patnaik may get past the half way mark of 74 seats in the assembly or fall a couple of seats short.
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But the Congress and the BJP contest the BJD’s claims. They pointed out that over 66 per cent turnout, particularly when the state is in the grip of a severe heat wave, can be considered a high percentage. “In Orissa 60 per cent is the baseline of voting percentage. In this context, the voters’ turnout in the just concluded elections borders on higher side”, says the state Congress spokesperson, Kailash Acharya.
He further explained, a low turn out of 45 to 50 per cent generally means status quo as it represents the base number of voters who are usually mobilized by the ruling party. But a higher percentage means large number of people have either come out spontaneously or been mobilized by the opposition parties to vote against a government.
However, he said, on few occasions like that in 1984, high rate of polling has gone in favour the establishment as the election was held in the backdrop of landmark event like death of Indira Gandhi. But this time there being no such emotive issues or swings, a reasonable good turnout of voters in Orissa may go in favour of the opposition, he argued. But he added that there being intense triangular fights among the BJD, the BJP and the Congress in most of the seats, unlike previous elections which were fought on bi-polar platform, it would be very difficult to predict the results on the basis of voters’ turnout.
In 2004, which witnessed similar turnout, 29 Congress candidates had lost in the assembly elections with a margin of less than 1000 votes. A similar touch and go situation is likely to be witnessed in the current election swinging the results in favour or against two front runners for power, the BJD and the Congress though on the surface, the chances of the former emerging as the single largest victorious group looks brighter.