Who will lead the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Assembly polls? Whether chief minister VS Achuthanandan will contest in the election? If so, from which constituency? These are the questions being discussed in the Kerala media as well as every nook and cranny of the state.
The normal political practice is that the current chief minister will lead the campaign and will contest from the best possible seat. But that may not be the case here, going by the silence of CPI(M) over the candidature of VS. The party admits and campaigns that the VS cabinet is one of the best-ever governments in the state and that the state had progressed in all areas during his regime.
One may wonder then why VS is not leading the front and why his candidature is being kept in abeyance. The CPI(M) supremo Prakash Karat has said that Budhadeb would lead Bengal's Left Front. But he skipped the question on Kerala and clarified that the decision on the candidature of VS would be taken by the state leadership of the party.
According to the settlement between the LDF constituents, CPI(M) will contest in 93 Assembly seats this time. Though the party has not finalised the list of its candidates, it has been silent in the case of the most popular leader of the state. (According to a survey conducted by a local TV channel, 32 per cent prefer VS as the next CM). The question is now being discussed by the district committees of CPI(M) as the party wants a consensus over his candidature.
Such a long process is being followed only because of the group rivalry in the pradesh unit of the party. CPI(M) cannot avoid VS since he has strong support both in the rank and file of the party and among the public. But the official faction in the party is in no mood to admit this openly and does not want a second term for him even if LDF wins the elections.
In 2006 elections, VS was not included in the party list initially but later the central leadership of CPI(M) had to swallow its decision because of the strong resistance from party workers. This was for the first time that the party changed its list of candidates approved by the polit bureau.
So this time the party is moving very carefully and it is likely that VS would contest in the election. Because of his clean image as the chief minister and as a politician, he is seen as an essential leader for the front to fight elections.
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But they do not want to concede the game easily, and want to establish that VS is selected to contest in the elections through a ‘democratic’ process within the party. Also, the official faction led by Pinarayi Vijayan, secretary of the state unit, wants to by-pass his chances to be the next CM of the state.
The CPI(M) leadership is now in a dilemma as the inclusion or exclusion of VS will be a major headache to the party. A section of the state leadership is raising his anti-party stands throughout his term as CM including the lottery case. They also cite the decision to expel him from the polit bureau.
But he is an inevitable factor in the campaigns and if he is excluded from the list of candidates that itself will reduce the chances of LDF to a significant extent. Moreover, the party leadership will find it difficult to explain this to the people.
The party is worrying about being seen by the people as having banked on the ‘good governance of VS but later denied him a second term. The people of Kerala can swallow this with a pinch of salt. So, political circles now believe that VS will be in the final list, but would be given a clear message that he should be under the strong clutches of the party; that he is included in the candidates list through a consensus within the party, not on his merit or image.
From the polit bureau, Kodiyeri Balakrishnan will also be in the list. As part of a tactical line, Pinarayi Vijayan will not contest this time. CPI(M) sources said that this is because of the Lavelin case in which Vijayan is one of the accused. If he is included, the main target of the UDF will be him. Moreover during the campaign any unfavourable remark from the apex court would completely spoil the chances of the Left Front.