Was advancing polls a mistake?

MANDATE 2004/ Young voters are by inclination anti-establishment, say analysts

When Lok Sabha polls were advanced by five months by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government to cash in on the victories the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had scored in the December 2003 Assembly polls it was termed as a smart move, which would also buck a possible bad monsoon.

Yesterday, with the drubbing the alliance has got in Andhra Pradesh and exit polls forecasting a hung Lok Sabha, opinion of media analysts varies on the issue.

"The schedule has gone completely awry, taps run dry, heat is immense. It is not the kind of mood in which a person should be asked to cast his or her vote," Sanjaya Baru, chief editor, The Financial Express said here in a panel discussion on the emerging political scenario and economic reforms or organised by the Ficci.

However MJ Akbar of The Asian Age said it was the most brilliant decision of the NDA government because if they had waited till September, there would have been a further slide.

"Unless they get less than 240 seats, I am convinced, the NDA will form the government. But it will be a more lose coalition than before," political commentator Prem Shankar Jha said.

The single most important factor in the Andhra polls had been anti-incumbency and in the 29 elections held since 1998, 25 governments had been unseated, he added.

Outlook's Vinod Mehta said the four-week period was just too long to conduct elections and urged the media to do some introspection over how exit polls failed to detect the deep resentment in Andhra Pradesh over the TDP, which was not only defeated but wiped out.

Some participants in the panel discussion felt that the NDA should have tested the waters in Andhra Pradesh and only then called for the Lok Sabha polls, but others begged to differ.

Most panellists felt that irrespective of the composition of the 14th Lok Sabha, economic reforms will carry on as before.

"We are still in the realm of speculation but if the exit polls are right, the momentum of economic reforms might slacken momentarily after the announcement of the results, the overall direction of reforms will remain on course," consulting editor of The Times of India Dileep Padgaonkar said.

Akbar said India was having "coalition" governments since 1989 when the minimum age to be eligible for voting was reduced to 18.

He said these young voters had a genuine desire to vote, are by inclination anti-establishment and not had the time to be corrupt.

He said the positive development was that unlike the past there were no genuine ideological divisions between parties.

Mulayam Singh Yadav, a Lohiate by origin had now befriended some of the biggest corporates. West Bengal's communist Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya was also creating conducive climate for private businesses.