The signs emanating from global weather forecasters’ predictions on 2012 southwest monsoon has put the agriculture ministry on its guard.
Following the predictions of below-normal rainfall in the country — after two successive years of normal monsoon — the ministry is planning to instruct all states to prepare contingency plans to deal with uneven monsoon. The plans could include district-wise action in case of low rains, making available short-duration and water-stress-resistant seed varieties and fertilisers, continuous monitoring of water levels in the 80-odd reservoirs across the country, etc.
“The idea is not to spread a scare, but, instead, to be prepared, so as not to get caught in a 2009-like scenario, when the actual monsoon was far less, despite expectations of normal rains — pushing the country into one of the worst droughts in over three decades,” a senior agriculture ministry official said.
He said the preparations would be discussed during a two-day conference of senior agricultural scientists, officials from all states and Union Territories, beginning Monday, to finalise the strategy for this year’s kharif sowing.
The weather concerns arose after major global weather forecasters, such as Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at the Columbia University, predicted there was little chance of India getting above-normal monsoon this year. This was lent further credence by the UK’s meteorological office, in its long-range global weather forecast, in which it said the chance of India getting above-normal rainfall during the entire four-month period of July-September was only 40 per cent.
Caution by the agriculture ministry also speaks volumes on the credibility of the southwest monsoon forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has repeatedly erred in its predictions.
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The Met office usually shrugs off such long-range global predictions as being too far-fetched and comes out with its first official forecast in April, days before monsoon actually hits Andaman and Nicobar islands.
Southwest monsoon enters the mainland from Kerala coast in May, thereafter leaving very little time for making any significant agricultural intervention. “In the last two years since 2009, India has received good southwest monsoon, so there is a chance of some uneven or erratic rains this year,” the official added.
In 2010, India received rains that were equivalent to 98 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA), while in 2011 it received 101 per cent. Rainfall between 96 and 100 per cent of LPA is considered normal rainfall in the country. The Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on southwest monsoon, as the four-month rainy season provides around 70 per cent of the total moisture the country receives in a year.
The rains are vital also because just around 40 per cent of the total arable land in the country is under irrigation.
Following a drought, the country’s agricultural growth dropped to 0.1 per cent in 2008-09, from 5.8 per cent the previous year. Officials said the two-day meet would give a special focus to technical know-how, timely advisories and supply of inputs to farmers in the event of low rainfall.